Behind the cluster of 13 films, May 1st will become the next Spring Festival file？

The May 1st file is about to open, and it seems certain that this year’s May 1st file will be the most crowded in history. Under the circumstance that three new films, Antique close encounter of mahjong, Dog Fruit Theorem and There is She, are withdrawn, there are still 13 films in the May 1st file this year, and the number of films released has reached a record high. After experiencing the overall downturn in the market in March and April, can the upcoming May 1 ST file replicate the miracle of the Spring Festival file and once again pull the ceiling of the high-end box office?

Type and quantity reached a new high.

13 films hit the "strongest May 1st file"

As of the deadline, Dog Fruit Theorem, There is She in the World and Antique close encounter of mahjong have been withdrawn from the original May Day calendar. Because these films invited popular stars such as Jackson Yee and Li Xian to play in the town, they have attracted the attention of many fans before, and they were also powerful players in this year’s May Day box office explosion, and the withdrawal of three films indirectly reflects the fierce competition this year.

Of course, the withdrawal of the above three films will not affect the situation of the May 1 ST file this year. After witnessing the outstanding performance of this year’s Spring Festival and Qingming, the film’s trust in the schedule seems to have increased. In addition, the May Day holiday this year is two days longer than in previous years, which is more conducive to the fermentation of film reputation and box office, so it has been widely favored by the film. Up to now, there are 13 new films aimed at the May 1st this year, including My Love’s Above the Cliff, Secret Visitor and many other head cinema films with explosive scenes.

This year’s May 1st movies have also created a record high in the breadth of genre themes, and 13 new movies have combined suspense, love, comedy, fantasy, animation, action, adventure and other genres. Among them, suspense and adventure types account for the highest proportion, reaching six in total, including Above the Cliff directed by Zhang Yimou and Secret Visitor directed by Chen Zhengdao. Followed by action and comedy films, the number reached five, of which the most concerned film was ONCE UPON A TIME IN HONG KONG directed by Jing Wong. The film brought together four leading actors, Louis Koo, Tony Leung Ka Fai, Wu Zhenyu and Lin Jiadong, and the lineup was luxurious. Because the film theme is highly similar to "Chasing the Dragon" directed by Jing Wong, it is also expected to become a scheduled explosion.

It is worth mentioning that, in the May 1st this year, among the numerous films "Fight between the Immortals", only one romantic film, My Love, was released, which was quite outstanding. The film is starred by Greg Han Hsu, an idol student who made a hit with Seeing You. On social networking sites such as Weibo, My Love is far ahead. In the list prediction, My Love is also regarded as a strong contender for the title.

It seems that it is only a matter of time before the May 1st box office hit a new high this year, and the only variable that affects the late trend of the May 1st film comes from the release of Fast & Furious 9. As we all know, unlike the exclusive schedule of domestic films such as the Spring Festival and summer vacation, the May Day file usually cannot enjoy the bonus of "Domestic Protection Month", and the schedule span is often short, which cannot fully stimulate the long tail effect of the film. As one of the most popular series films in history, Fast 9 was scheduled to be released on May 21st, only two weeks away from May 1st, which also means that the May 1st head film must increase its publicity efforts in the early stage, so as to grab more box office before the release of Fast 9.

Read the May 1st gear:

Want to see the number of people, user portraits, pre-sale film comparison

By analyzing the user portraits of Hi, Mom and My Sister, two explosive domestic films this year, it is not difficult to find that the female audience has an absolute advantage. In Hi, Mom’s user portrait, the female audience accounts for 70.4%, while in My Sister, the female audience accounts for 75.5%.

Although the gender ratio is not the only factor that affects the box office, it still has certain reference significance for the film’s trend. By analyzing the portraits of new film users in May 1st this year, it is found that My Love’s Secret Visitor and Sunshine Robber are the most concerned among female audiences, and the female audiences of the three films account for 75.8%, 72.8% and 72.2% respectively. On the contrary, the proportion of male audience in ONCE UPON A TIME IN HONG KONG’s films such as "True Three Kingdoms Warriors" and "Fighting Against the Black" is higher than that of female audience. Among the three films, "True Three Kingdoms Warriors" has the highest proportion of male audience, reaching 65.6%. The film is adapted from a stand-alone game with the same name, which has certain threshold requirements for the audience and is relatively more difficult to break the circle.

In terms of film popularity, this year’s May 1st new films also showed an obvious gradient arrangement, among which one of the indicators that can best evaluate the pre-film popularity comes from the number of "people who want to see" on the platform. After observing and sorting out the number of people who want to see 13 films in May 1st, the film and television industry found that My Love was far ahead in the popularity of the cat’s eye on the ticket purchasing platform, ranking first with the number of people who wanted to see 1.06 million, while the number of people who wanted to see Secret Visitors ranked second was about 269,000, which was far from that of My Love. On Douban, which has a higher concentration of fans, the number of people who want to see Secret Visitor jumped to the first place, with a total of 87,000 people marked as "want to see", followed by On the Cliff and My Love, with 53,000 people and 24,000 people respectively.

On the two social platforms of Tik Tok and Weibo, the data performance of "Secret Visitor" My Love and other films is more eye-catching. Among them, the cumulative number of topics played by "Secret Visitor" on Tik Tok has reached 629 million, ranking first at present; The cumulative number of praises received by My Love Official Shake exceeded 15.6 million, ahead of the May 1st film of the same period. In addition, The Secret Visitor, which went to My Love in Weibo, also ranked in the forefront of the hot list of films to be shown for several days, while Above the Cliff, which was shown in advance, gained a great deal of attention by virtue of its early word-of-mouth fermentation.

The number of people who want to watch on the platform, the number of topics broadcast and other indicators lead, which also ensures My Love’s high number of films on the premiere day. According to the cat’s eye data, on the first day of its release on April 30th, My Love ranked first with 42% of the number of films, ahead of 20% of Above the Cliff, and the two films shared 62% of the total number of films. While many new films were released on May 1st, My Love still ranked first with 20.2% of the films. As of the deadline, My Love ranked first in the number of films scheduled every day during the May Day holiday, and it seems a foregone conclusion that My Love won the first slot title without the collapse of film reputation.

Go back to the May 1 ST file over the years

Where will the box office ceiling be this year?

At present, the cinema movies have formed a stable schedule arrangement. For example, the Spring Festival schedule is more suitable for movies with strong family fun, the Valentine’s Day schedule is more suitable for romantic movies, and the National Day schedule is often a gathering place for gift films and main melody movies. Compared with the above-mentioned schedule, the May 1 ST file is often more inclusive of film types, which means that any type of film may become a schedule explosion. Of course, it is not difficult to find out by reviewing the May Day schedule in recent years that although the genre coverage of new films is higher than other schedules, the market and audience still have a certain genre tendency for head films, and the road to explosion of head films is usually traceable.

Take the May 1st file in 2017 as an example. Seven films were selected to be released during May 1st this year, among which Shock Wave 2’s Memory Master, Like You and Spring Jiao Save Zhiming received the highest attention. In the early stage, the market was optimistic about Master Memory and Saving Zhiming by Spring Jiao, but the final title was won by Shock Wave 2, and the film won a total of 240 million box office during May Day, while the previously optimistic "Saving Zhiming by Spring Jiao" suffered from waterloo due to word of mouth, and finally only won 110 million box office during May Day, ranking at the end of the above four films.

After Shock Wave 2’s "bursting" performance in 2017, the May 1st file of 2018 ushered in the release of many action and crime movies, including "The Player Behind the Scene", "The Low Pressure Trough: The City of Desire" and "The Age of God of War", among which "The Player Behind the Scene" received the highest attention before the release. However, when the outside world was generally optimistic about the film, it was another romantic film "Later Us" that was proud of May 1st. With the word-of-mouth fermentation on social platforms after screening, "Later Us" won a high box office of 286 million on the first day of release, and finally won a box office of 930 million during May Day, setting a new box office record and becoming a dark horse in the market that year.

In 2019, the May 1st file was quite special. Influenced by the release of Avengers 4 at the end of April, the number of May 1st files in that year was significantly reduced, and only five new films were selected to be released during the May 1st file, among which only The Next: The Former has a certain volume on the Internet. However, due to the fact that "Reunion 4" robbed most of the films during the May Day period, and the poor reputation of "Next: Former", the final film only earned 95 million box office during the May Day period, while "Reunion 4" won 1.21 billion box office during the May Day period. Looking back at the May Day files in recent years, this is the first time that the imported films have overshadowed domestic films.

By analyzing the May Day schedule in the past three years, we can find that although the number of new films is relatively stable every year, only a few of them can get high box office. The reason is not only related to the objective reasons such as limited schedule length, imported films seizing the market, but also closely related to the quality of the films themselves. For example, the douban scores of some films that have broken the May 1 ST file over the years, such as The Next: The Former, The Age of War, are far below the passing line.

In addition, the factors that affect the box office trend of May 1st movies also include movie types, announcement strategies and so on. For example, the 2018 romantic film "Later Us" provided some reference for the subsequent May 1st movies after it was released on May 1st and won the box office success. This year, My Love’s lead in early popularity and the number of films was also highly similar to that of "Later Us". As for whether My Love can successfully reach the top as the winner of May 1st this year, we need to wait until the film is officially released.

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After last year’s epidemic, this year’s film market has also ushered in "revenge viewing". Compared with before the epidemic, the audience’s enthusiasm for watching movies has not dropped, which is particularly evident in this year’s Spring Festival and Qingming files. With the length of the May Day holiday and the number of new films released reaching record highs this year, there is reason to believe that the market is about to witness the birth of the "strongest May Day file".

— THE