Global supply: The scale of global soda ash production capacity continues to expand, and China contributes a major increase.

In recent years, the global capacity and output of soda ash are increasing year by year. According to Bloomberg, the capacity of soda ash increased from 44.72 million tons in 2000 to 82.95 million tons in 2023. In 2023, China (50%), North America (18%) and Western Europe (11%) are the main soda production capacity distribution areas. According to Bloomberg statistics, in 2000, the global soda production capacity was 44.721 million tons, and it increased to 66.758 million tons in 2014. China was the main source of capacity increase, and the proportion of soda production capacity in China increased from 19.3% to 45.9%, reaching a historical peak. In 2015-2021, the global soda production capacity increase mostly comes from the Middle East and Africa. In 2023, with the launch of natural alkali production capacity in China, the new global production capacity will be concentrated in China.

　 　 　 　Supply in China: capacity expansion by natural alkali method in 2023, and supply may be loose in 2024.

Limited by the industry entry threshold and environmental protection requirements, the growth of soda production capacity in China slowed down from 2016 to 2022, and the new production capacity in 2023 was mainly natural soda production capacity. According to the statistics of Baichuan Yingfu, from 2016 to 2022, China’s soda production capacity expanded from 30.79 million tons to 3,485 tons (including 3.75 million tons of long-term production suspension enterprises). The scale expansion of soda ash production capacity in the future is expected to be limited, and it is mainly natural alkali. In 2023, with the production capacity of 5 million tons in the first phase of Yuanxing Energy Alashan Natural Alkali Project (4 million tons in 2003 and 1 million tons in early 2004), the production capacity of Henan Jinshan Chemical Industry increased by 2 million tons and the production capacity of other soda plants increased slightly, the domestic soda production capacity totaled 41.65 million tons, up by 11% year-on-year.

Demand: the demand for soda ash with flat glass backing, and the application of new energy is rapidly improving.

In 2023, the apparent consumption of soda ash in China was 31.82 million tons (27.26 million tons in 22 years), 73% of which was mainly used in the glass field. In China, glass is the main downstream application field of soda ash, including flat glass, photovoltaic glass and daily-use glass, and their consumption accounts for 43%, 17% and 13% respectively. Followed by baking soda (7%) and silicate (5%) (2023). Among them, from 2019 to now, with the rapid development of domestic photovoltaic industry, the proportion of photovoltaic glass in the downstream application of soda ash has increased significantly, and in 2023, it has surpassed daily glass to become the second largest application field of soda ash.

Related companies

Yuanxing Energy:The company has been deeply involved in the natural soda industry for many years, and the production capacity of soda ash and baking soda ranks among the top in China. By 2023, the company has a capacity of 5.8 million tons of soda ash, 1.5 million tons of baking soda and 1.54 million tons of urea. The company’s natural alkali has a competitive advantage and its production capacity continues to expand. The company plans to build 7.8 million tons of soda ash and 800,000 tons of baking soda in Alashan natural soda project, including 5 million tons of soda ash and 400,000 tons of baking soda in the first phase and 2.8 million tons of soda ash and 400,000 tons of baking soda in the second phase. The first phase of the project was put into trial operation in June 2023; The second phase of the project started construction in December 2023 and is scheduled to be completed in December 2025. Combined with the analysis of this paper, among the different processes of soda ash, trona process has the most advantages in cost and environmental protection, and trona depends on resource endowment. With the continuous expansion of the company’s trona production capacity, it is expected to obtain excess profits in the industry and provide power for the long-term growth of the company’s performance.

References:20240531- TF Securities-Basic chemical industry: soda ash: both supply and demand sides are facing structural changes.

Disclaimer:The above information comes from Huiyang Research Department, and the content does not provide specific operational guidance, and customers should not use it as a reference factor for investment decisions. Buying on this basis is at your own risk, the stock market is risky, and investment needs to be cautious.

(promotion)

　　The weather is cold in winter, and some people are afraid of the cold and don’t want to go out. They just sit on their balcony and bask in the sun through the glass, thinking that this can supplement calcium. Can you really supplement calcium by sunbathing through glass?

　　Sunbathing is to supplement vitamin D.

　　Cao Xuexia, deputy director of the Department of Endocrinology, xuanwu hospital, Capital Medical University, said that the main purpose of sunbathing is not to supplement calcium, but to supplement vitamin D. The main function of vitamin D is to promote intestinal calcium absorption, increase muscle coordination and prevent falls. When in the sun, ultraviolet rays reach the skin, and 7- dehydrocholesterol in the skin will gradually transform vitamin D. However, if you bask in the sun through the glass, the glass will block some ultraviolet rays, and the amount of ultraviolet rays will be obviously attenuated, which will affect the absorption of vitamin D and calcium.

　　Experts suggest that ultraviolet rays should be exposed to the outside world under the condition of adequate protection, and ultraviolet rays will be attenuated through glass, especially B-segment ultraviolet rays that stimulate the skin, which will affect the transformation of vitamin D and thus the absorption of calcium. If you need calcium supplement, most of the calcium still needs to be taken from food, such as milk or calcium tablets.

　　It is advisable to bask in the sun for less than 30 minutes.

　　Sunbathing through the glass really can’t promote the absorption of calcium, and it may even get sunburned. If you really can’t go out for activities, you must also open the window and let the sun directly contact your skin. "Shorts and short sleeves in summer, showing face and hands in winter" is the best choice.

　　It should be noted that the time spent in the sun is not as long as possible, and too long exposure may hurt the skin. Most people can spend 10-20 minutes in the sun every day. Children can spend a shorter time and the elderly can spend a longer time, but it is generally recommended to spend 30 minutes. If necessary, you can wear sunglasses to avoid eye damage caused by direct sunlight, and wearing a hat can avoid hair sunburn. After sunbathing, it is necessary to replenish water in time and vitamin C selectively to inhibit the production of melanin and prevent sunburn.

　　Beijing, Sept. 21 (Xinhua)-The British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) published an article on the 19th, pointing out that there are many discussions about "going out of the house" in Brexit, so that Britain can solve the problem once and for all and then move on. The Brexit Party said that if Britain and the EU had no agreement to leave the EU, they would be able to "leave home clean", and many Conservatives also agreed with this view. Sadly, the ideal is full and the reality is skinny.

　　The article is excerpted as follows:

　　Under the leadership of the theresa may administration, Britain and the European Union negotiated and reached the current Brexit agreement and political declaration, but the current British government indicated that it would make major changes.

　　The new Prime Minister Johnson said that if Britain can’t get what it wants, it is ready to leave the EU without agreement.

　　How clean can you go out of the house?

　　This is, of course, the most sudden change in the divorce war of this century. The internal planning document of the British government analyzes how much impact this situation may have on the existing management system.

　　Overnight, all the laws and regulations governing the relationship between Britain and the rest of the European Union in the past half century will disappear.

　　According to the existing draft Brexit agreement (reached between the theresa may government and the EU), this will not happen, because the agreement stipulates a transition period of at least two years, when Britain will leave the EU completely, but the trade and security relations between the two sides will remain roughly the same.

　　Supporters of this arrangement say that it will give the government and enterprises more excessive time to prepare for the new relationship between the two sides and have time to negotiate such as free trade agreements.

　　But critics say that this will turn Britain into a vassal state, which still has to abide by EU regulations, and Britain has no say in making these regulations. In other words, this is not a "clean house".

　　However, even if there is no agreement to leave the EU, the two sides need to start negotiations and dialogue, and it is better to talk early than late.

　　"No agreement" is misleading?

　　Some people think that the term "no agreement" is a misleading term because the two sides have reached a series of small agreements.

　　But that idea is wrong.

　　The EU has agreed to take a series of unilateral measures, without consulting with Britain, to ensure (among other things) that certain financial transactions can continue in a few months and that planes can fly around as usual.

　　Everyone can benefit from this arrangement, but this arrangement is temporary and has limited practical effect, and it still needs to be renegotiated as soon as possible.

　　The British government argues that the EU will be forced to deal with Britain because Britain is too big for the EU and a partner to be ignored.

　　The EU is the same for Britain, which means that the negotiations between the two sides will (if any) have to be strengthened.

　　Just enter a new stage.

　　Irish Prime Minister Valadeka summed up the mainstream views of EU capitals at a joint press conference with British Prime Minister Johnson in mid-September.

　　He said that if Britain leaves on October 31, 2019 or even January 31, 2020, the story of Brexit will not end like this.

　　He said that there is no such thing as going out of the house and getting rid of it once and for all, and there is no such thing as making a clean break. On the contrary, the relationship between the two sides has just entered a new stage.

　　The European Research Group (ERG), a Brexit party in the Conservative Party that advocates no agreement to leave the EU, said that this new stage should be used to negotiate a free trade agreement.

　　They believe that Britain can refuse to pay the Brexit fee agreed in the financial solution of the theresa may government, or pay the divorce fee. The latest estimated cost is 33 billion pounds. The money can be saved and used in other ways.

　　However, Valade Carr reiterated the warning issued by other EU leaders: If Britain leaves the EU without agreement, the EU will insist that the first issues to be discussed in any future negotiations will be civil rights, Irish borders and financial solutions.

　　These issues are exactly the same as the main contents of the Brexit agreement that was rejected three times in the British House of Commons. Moreover, these problems still need to be solved before the EU is ready to discuss a free trade agreement.

　　On June 24, 2016, local time, the results of the referendum on "Brexit" in Britain were announced, and most voters agreed that Britain should leave the European Union. The picture shows "Brexit" supporters celebrating in central London. China News Service reporter Zhou Zhaojun photo

　　Can you ignore it?

　　Therefore, the only way for Britain to really clean up its Brexit is whether it is ready to "turn its face and leave", at least for a while, regardless of maintaining stable relations with the EU. This relationship is related to half of British trade.

　　However, this situation sounds unsustainable.

　　The food supply in Britain is inextricably linked with other countries in the European Union.

　　Andrew Opie of the British Retail Federation recently told the British Parliament’s Select Committee on Brexit that from the consumer’s point of view, if there is no strong agreement with Britain’s largest trading partner, there will be great uncertainty. There is no escaping this problem.

　　He said that 80% of the food imported by British supermarkets comes from the European Union. Therefore, about 25% of all products sold in Britain come from the European Union.

　　In addition, in the whole process of Brexit, the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland is one of the most sensitive issues, and there is no way to turn away without talking about this issue.

　　The British government’s own internal planning documents have concluded that Britain’s non-agreement to leave the European Union will have a very adverse impact on Ireland’s land border, which will soon generate great pressure and will need to be forced to reach new arrangements within a few days to weeks.

　　Karen Wheeler was in charge of coordinating Britain’s post-Brexit border arrangements until she resigned in June. She told the British Parliament’s Select Committee on Brexit that the Irish border would soon become a headache.

　　She said that it is obvious that neither the relevant customs system nor the tariff system can be sustained in the long run.

　　She said, therefore, after the short transition period, what method should be adopted … … It is not clear what the solution is.

　　Years of negotiations

　　Of course, there are also many discussions about the alternative arrangement of Irish border protection clauses. The safeguard clauses reached by the EU and the Government of theresa may will ensure that the border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland will remain as open as it is now under any circumstances.

　　However, any solution to the problem requires long-term negotiations and goodwill from both sides.

　　Once and for all, the above conditions cannot be guaranteed.

　　For anyone who has had enough of Brexit, the unpleasant fact is that, regardless of the outcome, Britain will face years of technical negotiations and political dramas.

　　At present, one thing is certain — — In the foreseeable future, "Brexit" will still dominate British political and public life.

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