Looking at the first quarterly report of the semiconductor sector, many institutions refer to the inflection point of the recovery of the semiconductor boom.
Since the beginning of this year, the voice of semiconductor industry recovery has gradually increased, and this trend has been gradually verified from the performance of listed companies in the first quarter.
【The performance of the semiconductor sector improved significantly year-on-year】
Statistics show that in the first quarter of 2024, the total revenue of the entire conductor plate (Shenwan secondary industry caliber) was 127.341 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.81%; The net profit was 6.513 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%.
In terms of sub-sectors, the revenue of the semiconductor equipment sector increased by 37.12% year-on-year, and the long-term benefit of localization substitution accelerated; The net profit of returning to the mother increased by 26.33% year-on-year, which was higher than the overall level of the industry.
【Has the inflection point of semiconductor recovery arrived?】
Statistics from overseas institutions show that in March 2024, global semiconductor sales increased by 15.7% year-on-year, and achieved year-on-year growth for five consecutive months, down 0.6% from the previous month.
In addition, downstream demand shows a trend of structural differentiation, and consumer demand is gradually recovering. According to Canalys data, global smartphone shipments increased by 10% year-on-year in the first quarter of this year, and global PC shipments increased by 3% year-on-year. It is expected that the penetration rate of AI mobile phones and AI PC will increase rapidly.
The latest analysis of Dongguan Securities pointed out that,Upward prosperity and domestic substitution simultaneously, maintaining the over-allocation rating of the semiconductor sector.. Since the second half of 2023, driven by the recovery of traditional consumer electronics demand (represented by smart phones and PCs), the innovation of AI-driven industry (represented by AI servers and PCB) and the continuous promotion of domestic substitution (represented by semiconductor equipment and materials),The performance of the semiconductor sector gradually recovered, and officially entered the boom cycle in the first quarter of 2024.
Galaxy Securities also said that,The inflection point of semiconductor company’s performance has appeared, and the industry is gradually repairing.. In the first quarter of this year, the slow recovery of downstream demand and the bottoming repair of the landing two-wheel drive industry with new applications such as AI. The growth rate of total revenue of China’s semiconductor industry companies has further expanded, and the decline in profit margins has narrowed significantly year-on-year; 75% of companies in the semiconductor industry achieved positive revenue growth, and 42% achieved positive net profit growth, with positive growth rates higher than the same period in 2023.
For the second quarter,TF SecuritiesIt is believed that in the short term, we should improve our sensitivity to changes in demand side.. A-share semiconductor released a quarterly report, and the marginal improvement of semiconductor companies increased year-on-year, and the off-season was not weak. Benefiting from the long-term domestic substitution trend of semiconductor cycle recovery +AI and other applications, some semiconductor manufacturers have ushered in high profits.Optimistic about the semiconductor industry to achieve high growth rate in the second quarter. The semiconductor industry is expected to enter a new growth cycle, and it is optimistic that the sector will continue to recover from the previous year.
【The performance of semiconductor equipment is expected to maintain a high growth trend.】
Benefiting from the continuous tide of building factories in domestic fabs, the share of superimposed domestic semiconductor equipment in domestic fabs increased, and the revenue and net profit of semiconductor equipment sector in the first quarter of 2023 and 2024 increased year-on-year, and the process of domestic substitution in the industry accelerated.
Galaxy Securities believes that from the performance of 10 core semiconductor equipment companies, both revenue and net profit maintained positive growth in the first quarter of 2023 and 2024. In the first quarter of 2024, the contract liabilities and inventories remained high, indicating that the above companies had sufficient orders in hand and newly signed orders.Looking forward to the market outlook, China’s increasing share of global semiconductor production capacity, the recovery of terminal demand, and the promotion of domestic wafer fab mature process bidding and procurement will all promote.semiconductor deviceThe industry continues to maintain a high prosperity under the background of domestic substitution.
According to the latest view of CMB International, domestic substitution and self-control of semiconductors will be a long-term trend for China. Thanks to the support of national policies and subsidies, breakthroughs in industrial R&D, and strong demand driven by downstream domestic substitution, the semiconductor equipment industry in China will usher in vigorous development, and the whole industry is gradually moving towards a positive cycle track.
In the long run, the agency is optimistic about the development of the semiconductor equipment sector: on the one hand, overseas industry leaders are expected to continue to maintain their leading position; On the other hand,China’s equipment suppliers, driven by domestic substitution and self-control, will see higher revenue growth and share increase.
[Semiconductor equipment ETF, layout tool with higher equipment content]
As the fundamentals continue to improve, many funds continue to be laid out through some sub-category ETFs. The data shows that the semiconductor equipment ETF(561980) received a net purchase and purchase of 2.64 million yuan yesterday. In the past 5 days, the cumulative net flow of the interval has exceeded 8 million yuan.
It is understood that the semiconductor equipment ETF(561980) is the first product in the market to track the CSI Semiconductor Industry Index (referred to as CSI Semiconductor), and the underlying index mainly focuses on 40.Semiconductor equipment and materialsSuch as upstream industrial chain companies,The top ten constituent stocks cover North Huachuang, Zhongwei, SMIC, Weir, Haiguang Information, Tuojing Technology, Huahai Zero2IPO and other stocks, accounting for about 76% of the total, and the index concentration is relatively high.
industryFrom the perspective,Pay more attention to upstream equipment and materials, among which "semiconductor equipment" accounts for nearly 5.five%. From the perspective of industrial chain, the upstream semiconductor equipment and materials have a vast space for domestic substitution, which continues to be highly valued by the capital market and supported by the national industrial policy.
This article comes from: financial circles
Author: e broadcast