Up 32%! Record high! Can A shares rise by more than 10%？

　　Yesterday was 520. Did everyone feel the love of A shares? The three major indexes rose collectively, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a new high in the year, and the Hang Seng Index of Hong Kong stocks next door also hit a new high in the year.

　　(Source:APP, statistics as of May 20, 2024, no investment recommendation)

　　The turnover of the two cities was 995.4 billion yuan, which was higher than before. On the disk, affected by the surge in gold and silver prices, A sharesThe plate led the gains, with the non-ferrous and cyclical plates leading the gains.

　　In terms of the rise and fall of popular indexes, CSIIt rose by 0.46%, CSI Medical rose by 0.44%, and CS New Energy Vehicle rose by 0.35%.It rose by 0.26% and the photovoltaic industry fell by 0.05%. (Source: Choice data, statistics as of May 20, 2024, no investment recommendation)

　　Gold price and silver priceGedasheng

　　Affected by factors such as geopolitical policy and the expected increase in the Fed’s interest rate cut, spot gold broke through the historical high set in April yesterday and stood at $2,450 per ounce, continuing to hit a record high.

　　Spot silver also stood at the $32/oz mark, setting an 11-year high.

　　(Image source: APP, statistics as of May 20, 2024, no investment recommendation)

　　The A-share sector rose 7%, followed by the non-ferrous and cyclical sectors, with many gold,Etfs rose more than 5%.

　　As of the latest closing, COMEX silver rose 31.92% and COMEX gold rose 16.80% during the year. In addition, the prices of copper, crude oil and other industrial metals and energy are also highly sought after in large categories of assets.

　　(Source: data of Eastern Fortune Choice, statistics as of May 19, 2024, no investment recommendation)

　　Guoxin Futures Research Report shows that although the hedging and investment properties of silver are not as good as gold, in the context of the record high price of gold, funds began to turn to silver as a long allocation. At the same time, the industrial nature of silver itself gives it better price elasticity. Judging from the supply and demand of silver itself, the biggest change in recent years is actually its increased demand in the photovoltaic field, and the electronic manufacturing process related to AI also relies heavily on silver as a key raw material.

　　At present,Chinese peopleIt has increased its holdings of gold for 18 consecutive months.Although China’s gold reserves continued to grow in April, the growth rate was the lowest in the past 18 months. According to Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Oriental Jincheng, the small increase in April was related to factors such as the significant increase in the international gold price in that month.

　　The research report pointed out that the economic data showed that the inflation data in the United States fell from the previous month, which provided data support for the Fed to cut interest rates. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell claimed that the interest rate hike was not in the Fed’s option for the time being, which greatly weakened the market’s interest rate hike expectations caused by CPI’s continuous exceeding expectations since the beginning of the year. In addition, the European Central Bank Management Committee Nott believes that June may be the first time to cut interest rates.Machine. Affected by the expected increase in overseas interest rate cuts and the resurgence of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, gold prices at home and abroad are in a good trend, and it is expected that the subsequent gold prices will remain volatile and upward.

　　butOn May 20th, Shanghai Gold Exchange issued a notice on how to control market risks.According to the notice, there are many uncertain factors affecting the market operation in the near future, the market risk has obviously intensified and the price fluctuation has increased significantly. All member units are requested to raise their awareness of risk prevention, do a good job in risk emergency plan, and remind investors to do a good job in risk prevention, control their positions reasonably and invest rationally.

　　For the investment of gold funds, you can search for "gold" on the Tiantian Fund APP and enter the gold zone to learn more. It may help us to reduce fluctuations by allocating some gold as a safe-haven asset in the portfolio, but after a short-term rapid rise, we should also pay attention to chasing high risks.

　　(Image source: Tiantian Fund APP, statistics as of May 17, 2024, only for operational guidance, no investment recommendation)

　　Raise the target price of A shares

　　With the acceleration of the recent market recovery, foreign capital also has higher expectations for A shares.

　　willThe 12-month target of the index is raised from 60 to 70;Raise the 12-month target of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index from 3,900 points to 4,100 points.

　　According to the current closing price of 3690.96 of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, there is still 11% room for growth from the target price of 4100 points.

　　(Source: Oriental Fortune APP, statistics as of May 20, 2024, no investment recommendation)

　　So what’s going on with Jimin recently? Recently, in the topic "Did your fund make money?" initiated by Tiantian Fund, nearly half of the citizens chose to make money.

　　(Source: Tiantian Fund Network, no investment recommendation)

　　Judging from the performance of the partial stock hybrid fund index, the index return has also turned from negative to positive during the year.

　　Judging from the performance of funds, the data shows that as of the 19th, among the 4,358 partial-share hybrid funds in the whole market, 2,399 funds had positive returns during the year, accounting for over 50%. (Source: the data of Oriental Fortune Choice, statistical interval: January 1, 2024 ~ May 19, 2024, and investment recommendation is not made.)

　　Looking ahead to the market outlook, China Merchants Fund pointed out in its investment strategy report in May that there will be more investment opportunities than risks in the stock market in the next two quarters, and the high probability is still a structural market. After the uncertainty decreases, assets with higher risk characteristics (growth) may have room for performance. In terms of industry configuration, we are relatively optimistic about technology manufacturing, brokerage and growth materials and consumption sectors.

　　Guangfa Fund also mentioned in its strategy report in May that the A-share market is picking up and the market as a whole is in a state of upward elasticity. From a fundamental point of view, we can pay attention to the opportunities in the direction of going to sea, and suggest that investors continue to maintain the barbell strategy configuration scheme, that is, by diversifying investments at both ends, the portfolio includes both low-risk and high-risk assets to balance risks and returns.

　　If the funds in your hands have not been paid back, you don’t have to worry too much. You can re-examine whether the funds are recognized by yourself, make plans in advance, set up stop-loss points, balance the allocation, control the positions, and respond to market fluctuations in time. You can also apply tools such as fixed investment to help us reduce the holding cost and low-level layout.

　　Recently, honest and frank’s speech by Xu Yan, the manager of Dacheng Fund, was quite out of the loop in the live broadcast. Regarding value investment, he said that fund managers should never encourage holders to hold funds for a long time.He believes that long-term investment, value investment or patient capital, such asMore is said to the fund manager, the holder can make money, even if it is redeemed, it doesn’t matter.From the fund manager’s point of view, it is like cultivating people for a hundred years. When we take this major as a serious thing, you will naturally think about many long-term things.

　　At the end of the live broadcast, Xu Yan also gave investors a passage. He said, "The uncertainty in the future will increase significantly, and the possibility of stormy waves will not be ruled out. In such an environment,We should also get used to the fact that we can’t see clearly, and take uncertainty as the norm.The key to giving up the exam-oriented thinking of having an accurate answer to a question is not the answer, but the process. This process often depends on yourself. You can not only wander with a lot of anxiety, but also explore with curiosity like a child and explore the fun of the unknown world. "

　　In short, the market is full of unknowns. In the process of investment, we can try to put down our anxiety and explore the unknown more, which may be easier and more rewarding.