[Truck House Original] Recently, we saw a set of data on the live broadcast of a press conference. In the heavy commercial vehicle market in 2019, about 8,000 vehicles equipped with AMT automation were sold. By 2020, nearly 50,000 heavy commercial vehicles equipped with AMT gearboxes have been sold, showing almost explosive growth.

The outbreak of automatic transmission has attracted the attention of manufacturers.

The explosive growth of automatic heavy trucks not only makes more card friends choose automatic transmission models, but also makes all manufacturers aim at this field. To put it simply, in the eyes of manufacturers, this thing can be sold and sold for more money, then they will invest in research and development and make this thing. The more R&D is invested, the more ways to realize automatic transmission, or the more R&D routes.

And the live broadcast we saw came from the international gearbox, or the transmission system giant Borgwarner. The theme of this live broadcast is how promising it is to use the dual-clutch gearbox in commercial vehicles, and what kind of experience it will bring.

To put it simply, Borgwarner, as a giant in the transmission system manufacturer, has targeted the market of truck dual clutch. Judging from the participating brands, many domestic truck brands also recognize this matter. It can be said that they have reached a consensus.

So what’s the difference between dual-clutch gearbox and AMT now? Let’s have a brief talk first.

What’s the difference between dual clutch and AMT now?

In fact, the essence of dual clutch and AMT is manual gearbox, but AMT operates the gearbox through gear selection computer and actuator. The dual clutch is to subdivide it again, so that two sets of actuators are responsible for odd gears and even gears respectively. For example, if you are hanging the third gear now, then the actuator of the third gear is working. But at this time, the 4-speed actuator with dual clutch is already ready there. When we need to shift gears, it will switch between two sets of actuators.

We can understand that AMT is equivalent to adding a gear selection computer and a set of electronic control actuators to the manual gearbox. The dual clutch gearbox is to install two AMT in the car. The usual shift is to operate between two sets of actuators. In this way, the shift of the dual clutch can be faster, and the power loss caused during the shift process will be smaller. More fuel-efficient, more powerful, and the cost has not increased much.

There is still a long way to go, and it still needs hard work for the dual clutch to gain a foothold.

In fact, the appearance of dual clutch on trucks is undoubtedly a good thing. But after all, it also has shortcomings. If you want to really gain a foothold, according to Xiaobian, it is almost interesting. At least what I say below needs to be changed or satisfied.

1, the price is the key!

Compared with the AT gearbox, which now occupies a dominant position in passenger cars, the dual clutch is derived from the manual gearbox, and the cost is inevitably lower. However, compared with AMT gearbox, it is more complicated, so the cost is still rising.

To tell the truth, it is difficult for freight card friends to survive now, and buying AMT models is already biting their teeth. At this time, a dual-clutch model that is more expensive than it comes out, and the card friends will definitely not accept it. And this is likely to directly end the life of the dual clutch.

2. It is a problem that large torque is difficult to match.

As we mentioned earlier, the dual clutch gearbox is equivalent to an AMT with two sets of actuators. But in the car, everyone knows that the gearbox can’t be too big and too heavy. Therefore, the dual clutch gearbox often integrates two groups of clutches, which leads to a sharp reduction in the volume of clutches in the dual clutch.

The torque that a small clutch can bear is limited. On the live broadcast of this conference, relevant experts directly gave suggestions: dual clutch gearbox, suitable for power chains less than or equal to 1250 Nm. This also makes the dual clutch gearbox bid farewell to many models directly, especially for some trunk logistics that need high-end, the dual clutch has basically been out.

Of course, it is not without application in high-torque models, for example, it provides a dual-clutch version with a maximum of 540 horsepower. According to the industry bull, if the dual clutch of commercial vehicle adopts the form of front-inserted dual clutch, it will have direct structural difference from the dual clutch of passenger car today, so its performance will be different. It is not certain whether domestic manufacturers will choose this technical route if they apply it.

3, durability may be insufficient!

When the clutch plate becomes smaller, its heat dissipation capacity will become worse, and the heating speed will be much faster. This is equivalent to not only limiting its own strength, but also burying the hidden trouble of failure.

Let’s put it another way. In Xiaobian’s 6 years of experience in passenger car media, I have tried countless passenger cars with dual clutch gearboxes. These vehicles have left a bad impression on me more or less during their use. It can be said that the dual-clutch gearbox is not perfect in passenger cars, whether it is a setback in the acceleration process or an abnormal sound under long-term traffic congestion.

We have to put a question mark on the durability of this clutch gearbox in commercial vehicles that are heavily used and bear greater torque.

4, not smart enough is a serious injury!

In addition to the above problems, commercial vehicles, especially heavy trucks, have more gears in their gearboxes, and we often need to downshift frequently when we slow down. However, limited by the principle, the dual clutch gearbox cannot be trip stop. Because the odd gear is hanging, the next shift must be the even gear.

When we slow down or encounter congestion, vehicles often choose different gears according to the degree of deceleration. At this time, the dual clutch gearbox may not be smart enough to hang the gear we need most. And this problem is also the key. You said it was possible to make up for it with its fast shift speed. However, rapid gear shifting will inevitably exert greater pressure on the gear and box structure, which may also increase the failure rate.

● Editor’s note:

Therefore, if the dual-clutch gearbox really wants to be popularized and go to thousands of households, it still needs to overcome many problems. But I believe that once these problems are overcome, the dual-clutch gearbox will definitely bring us a better experience. (Text/Yuan Sheng)

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　Global supply: The scale of global soda ash production capacity continues to expand, and China contributes a major increase.

In recent years, the global capacity and output of soda ash are increasing year by year. According to Bloomberg, the capacity of soda ash increased from 44.72 million tons in 2000 to 82.95 million tons in 2023. In 2023, China (50%), North America (18%) and Western Europe (11%) are the main soda production capacity distribution areas. According to Bloomberg statistics, in 2000, the global soda production capacity was 44.721 million tons, and it increased to 66.758 million tons in 2014. China was the main source of capacity increase, and the proportion of soda production capacity in China increased from 19.3% to 45.9%, reaching a historical peak. In 2015-2021, the global soda production capacity increase mostly comes from the Middle East and Africa. In 2023, with the launch of natural alkali production capacity in China, the new global production capacity will be concentrated in China.

　 　 　 　Supply in China: capacity expansion by natural alkali method in 2023, and supply may be loose in 2024.

Limited by the industry entry threshold and environmental protection requirements, the growth of soda production capacity in China slowed down from 2016 to 2022, and the new production capacity in 2023 was mainly natural soda production capacity. According to the statistics of Baichuan Yingfu, from 2016 to 2022, China’s soda production capacity expanded from 30.79 million tons to 3,485 tons (including 3.75 million tons of long-term production suspension enterprises). The scale expansion of soda ash production capacity in the future is expected to be limited, and it is mainly natural alkali. In 2023, with the production capacity of 5 million tons in the first phase of Yuanxing Energy Alashan Natural Alkali Project (4 million tons in 2003 and 1 million tons in early 2004), the production capacity of Henan Jinshan Chemical Industry increased by 2 million tons and the production capacity of other soda plants increased slightly, the domestic soda production capacity totaled 41.65 million tons, up by 11% year-on-year.

Demand: the demand for soda ash with flat glass backing, and the application of new energy is rapidly improving.

In 2023, the apparent consumption of soda ash in China was 31.82 million tons (27.26 million tons in 22 years), 73% of which was mainly used in the glass field. In China, glass is the main downstream application field of soda ash, including flat glass, photovoltaic glass and daily-use glass, and their consumption accounts for 43%, 17% and 13% respectively. Followed by baking soda (7%) and silicate (5%) (2023). Among them, from 2019 to now, with the rapid development of domestic photovoltaic industry, the proportion of photovoltaic glass in the downstream application of soda ash has increased significantly, and in 2023, it has surpassed daily glass to become the second largest application field of soda ash.

Related companies

Yuanxing Energy:The company has been deeply involved in the natural soda industry for many years, and the production capacity of soda ash and baking soda ranks among the top in China. By 2023, the company has a capacity of 5.8 million tons of soda ash, 1.5 million tons of baking soda and 1.54 million tons of urea. The company’s natural alkali has a competitive advantage and its production capacity continues to expand. The company plans to build 7.8 million tons of soda ash and 800,000 tons of baking soda in Alashan natural soda project, including 5 million tons of soda ash and 400,000 tons of baking soda in the first phase and 2.8 million tons of soda ash and 400,000 tons of baking soda in the second phase. The first phase of the project was put into trial operation in June 2023; The second phase of the project started construction in December 2023 and is scheduled to be completed in December 2025. Combined with the analysis of this paper, among the different processes of soda ash, trona process has the most advantages in cost and environmental protection, and trona depends on resource endowment. With the continuous expansion of the company’s trona production capacity, it is expected to obtain excess profits in the industry and provide power for the long-term growth of the company’s performance.

References:20240531- TF Securities-Basic chemical industry: soda ash: both supply and demand sides are facing structural changes.

Disclaimer:The above information comes from Huiyang Research Department, and the content does not provide specific operational guidance, and customers should not use it as a reference factor for investment decisions. Buying on this basis is at your own risk, the stock market is risky, and investment needs to be cautious.

(promotion)

　　Beijing, Sept. 21 (Xinhua)-The British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) published an article on the 19th, pointing out that there are many discussions about "going out of the house" in Brexit, so that Britain can solve the problem once and for all and then move on. The Brexit Party said that if Britain and the EU had no agreement to leave the EU, they would be able to "leave home clean", and many Conservatives also agreed with this view. Sadly, the ideal is full and the reality is skinny.

　　The article is excerpted as follows:

　　Under the leadership of the theresa may administration, Britain and the European Union negotiated and reached the current Brexit agreement and political declaration, but the current British government indicated that it would make major changes.

　　The new Prime Minister Johnson said that if Britain can’t get what it wants, it is ready to leave the EU without agreement.

　　How clean can you go out of the house?

　　This is, of course, the most sudden change in the divorce war of this century. The internal planning document of the British government analyzes how much impact this situation may have on the existing management system.

　　Overnight, all the laws and regulations governing the relationship between Britain and the rest of the European Union in the past half century will disappear.

　　According to the existing draft Brexit agreement (reached between the theresa may government and the EU), this will not happen, because the agreement stipulates a transition period of at least two years, when Britain will leave the EU completely, but the trade and security relations between the two sides will remain roughly the same.

　　Supporters of this arrangement say that it will give the government and enterprises more excessive time to prepare for the new relationship between the two sides and have time to negotiate such as free trade agreements.

　　But critics say that this will turn Britain into a vassal state, which still has to abide by EU regulations, and Britain has no say in making these regulations. In other words, this is not a "clean house".

　　However, even if there is no agreement to leave the EU, the two sides need to start negotiations and dialogue, and it is better to talk early than late.

　　"No agreement" is misleading?

　　Some people think that the term "no agreement" is a misleading term because the two sides have reached a series of small agreements.

　　But that idea is wrong.

　　The EU has agreed to take a series of unilateral measures, without consulting with Britain, to ensure (among other things) that certain financial transactions can continue in a few months and that planes can fly around as usual.

　　Everyone can benefit from this arrangement, but this arrangement is temporary and has limited practical effect, and it still needs to be renegotiated as soon as possible.

　　The British government argues that the EU will be forced to deal with Britain because Britain is too big for the EU and a partner to be ignored.

　　The EU is the same for Britain, which means that the negotiations between the two sides will (if any) have to be strengthened.

　　Just enter a new stage.

　　Irish Prime Minister Valadeka summed up the mainstream views of EU capitals at a joint press conference with British Prime Minister Johnson in mid-September.

　　He said that if Britain leaves on October 31, 2019 or even January 31, 2020, the story of Brexit will not end like this.

　　He said that there is no such thing as going out of the house and getting rid of it once and for all, and there is no such thing as making a clean break. On the contrary, the relationship between the two sides has just entered a new stage.

　　The European Research Group (ERG), a Brexit party in the Conservative Party that advocates no agreement to leave the EU, said that this new stage should be used to negotiate a free trade agreement.

　　They believe that Britain can refuse to pay the Brexit fee agreed in the financial solution of the theresa may government, or pay the divorce fee. The latest estimated cost is 33 billion pounds. The money can be saved and used in other ways.

　　However, Valade Carr reiterated the warning issued by other EU leaders: If Britain leaves the EU without agreement, the EU will insist that the first issues to be discussed in any future negotiations will be civil rights, Irish borders and financial solutions.

　　These issues are exactly the same as the main contents of the Brexit agreement that was rejected three times in the British House of Commons. Moreover, these problems still need to be solved before the EU is ready to discuss a free trade agreement.

　　On June 24, 2016, local time, the results of the referendum on "Brexit" in Britain were announced, and most voters agreed that Britain should leave the European Union. The picture shows "Brexit" supporters celebrating in central London. China News Service reporter Zhou Zhaojun photo

　　Can you ignore it?

　　Therefore, the only way for Britain to really clean up its Brexit is whether it is ready to "turn its face and leave", at least for a while, regardless of maintaining stable relations with the EU. This relationship is related to half of British trade.

　　However, this situation sounds unsustainable.

　　The food supply in Britain is inextricably linked with other countries in the European Union.

　　Andrew Opie of the British Retail Federation recently told the British Parliament’s Select Committee on Brexit that from the consumer’s point of view, if there is no strong agreement with Britain’s largest trading partner, there will be great uncertainty. There is no escaping this problem.

　　He said that 80% of the food imported by British supermarkets comes from the European Union. Therefore, about 25% of all products sold in Britain come from the European Union.

　　In addition, in the whole process of Brexit, the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland is one of the most sensitive issues, and there is no way to turn away without talking about this issue.

　　The British government’s own internal planning documents have concluded that Britain’s non-agreement to leave the European Union will have a very adverse impact on Ireland’s land border, which will soon generate great pressure and will need to be forced to reach new arrangements within a few days to weeks.

　　Karen Wheeler was in charge of coordinating Britain’s post-Brexit border arrangements until she resigned in June. She told the British Parliament’s Select Committee on Brexit that the Irish border would soon become a headache.

　　She said that it is obvious that neither the relevant customs system nor the tariff system can be sustained in the long run.

　　She said, therefore, after the short transition period, what method should be adopted … … It is not clear what the solution is.

　　Years of negotiations

　　Of course, there are also many discussions about the alternative arrangement of Irish border protection clauses. The safeguard clauses reached by the EU and the Government of theresa may will ensure that the border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland will remain as open as it is now under any circumstances.

　　However, any solution to the problem requires long-term negotiations and goodwill from both sides.

　　Once and for all, the above conditions cannot be guaranteed.

　　For anyone who has had enough of Brexit, the unpleasant fact is that, regardless of the outcome, Britain will face years of technical negotiations and political dramas.

　　At present, one thing is certain — — In the foreseeable future, "Brexit" will still dominate British political and public life.

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The design of BMW i4 is full of modernity and sportsmanship. The front face adopts BMW family-style design language, with a unique air intake grille, which leaves a deep impression. The overall style is simple and atmospheric, and the lines are smooth, which outlines a body outline full of strength. Whether driving on city streets or suburban roads, BMW i4 can attract people’s attention.

The BMW i4 is excellent in body size, with the length, width and height of 4785*1852*1455 mm and the wheelbase of 2856 mm respectively. The body lines are smooth, showing a dynamic dive posture from front to back, showing a strong sporty atmosphere. In terms of track, the front track is 1601 mm and the rear track is 1630 mm, which provides stable driving performance for vehicles. In tyre size, the front tires are 245/45 R18 and the rear tires are 255/45 R18. With the rim design with sports style, the visual impact and handling performance of the whole vehicle are improved.

The interior design of BMW i4 inherits BMW’s consistent sense of luxury and technology. Advanced materials and meticulous craftsmanship are adopted to create a comfortable and elegant driving environment. The steering wheel is made of leather, equipped with manual up and down+front and rear adjustment function, which provides a good grip and adaptability. The 14.9-inch central control screen integrates multimedia system, navigation, telephone and air-conditioning voice recognition control system, which improves the convenience and intelligence of operation. In terms of seats, BMW i4 offers a variety of material choices, including imitation leather, genuine leather and leather /Alcantara mix, ensuring comfort and durability. The main and auxiliary seats can be adjusted in front and back, backrest, height, leg rest and lumbar support, which further enhances the riding experience. In addition, the front seats also have heating function, which provides extra warmth for cold weather. The USB and Type-C interfaces in the car are reasonably distributed, with two in the front row and two in the back row, which is convenient for passengers to charge and transmit data. It is worth mentioning that the front row also has a mobile phone wireless charging function, which provides a convenient charging scheme for modern mobile devices.

The BMW i4 is equipped with an efficient motor with a maximum power of 210 kW and a maximum torque of 400 Nm, which provides powerful power and smooth driving experience for the vehicle.

The owner of car home said that the configuration parameters of Series I 3, 5 and X3 are almost the same, but the shell is different, so he willfully spent more than 100,000 yuan just to buy the face value and personality of i4. As an imported model, the i4 has a unique appearance design, especially the iconic big nostril design, which makes people see its uniqueness at a glance. The owner proudly said that every time he drove out, others would guess that the car was worth 600 thousand, which made him feel very interesting.

□ Our correspondent in Russia, Shi Tianqi

Recently, the Russian-Ukrainian war, which has been delayed for thousands of days, has once again shown tension. The United States finally decided to relax the restrictions on Ukraine’s use of American aid weapons to Ukraine and allow Ukrainian troops to use long-range weapons to launch attacks on Russian mainland. Shortly after the United States "loosened" Ukraine, the Russian Defense Ministry confirmed on the 19th that the targets in Russia were attacked by the American Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) used by the Ukrainian army, which happened to be the 1000-day time node when the Russian-Ukrainian conflict broke out.

On the same day, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a presidential decree and approved the updated Basic Policy of the Russian Federation on Nuclear Deterrence. The Russian side responded that the Biden administration of the United States allowed Ukraine to use long-range weapons aided by the United States to attack Russian mainland before leaving office, which continued to fuel the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and would lead to further escalation of the situation.

The Biden administration intends to "dig a hole"

On the 17th, American media quoted American officials and sources as saying that Biden’s government had allowed Ukraine to use ATACMS to strike targets in Russia. Among them, The Wall Street Journal said that this is a major shift in US policy and may affect future diplomatic efforts and negotiations. The New York Times pointed out that this is a response to the Ukrainian long-term request, and mentioned that this move may change the battlefield situation, and there is also the risk of triggering a greater conflict.

Since the escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine in February 2022, the United States, as one of Ukraine’s most important supporting countries, has provided it with tens of billions of dollars in military and economic assistance. However, in order to prevent the conflict from escalating into a broader direct confrontation, the United States has set some restrictions, such as prohibiting attacks on targets in Russia, while assisting Ukrainian weapons. Ukrainian President Zelensky has repeatedly appealed to the United States to lift the restrictions, but the Democratic government of the United States has not "loosened" under the pressure of different voices at home and abroad.

Analysts here believe that since the Republican government will come to power in January next year, the Biden administration’s policy change aims to leave as many "tingwu" political legacies as possible to prevent US President-elect Trump from reversing the situation. In addition to "loosening" Ukraine, the Biden administration will also provide Ukraine with a new batch of weapons assistance. The Associated Press quoted US officials as saying on the 19th that the United States will provide Ukraine with new weapons worth at least $275 million.

The Ukrainian army responded quickly after the United States "loosened" it. On November 19, Uzbekistan issued a notice saying that the Ukrainian army had attacked an arsenal in Russia about 110 kilometers away from the Russian-Ukrainian border and caused a second explosion. On the same day, Russia said that in the early morning of the same day, the Oblast oblast was attacked by six American ATACMS missiles of the Ukrainian army, five of which were shot down by the Russian air defense system, and the remaining one was damaged due to Russian interception, and its fragments fell into a military area in the state. It caused a fire, but it was immediately put out. On the same day, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine broke out for 1000 days. It was far-reaching that the Ukrainian army used American weapons to attack Russia for the first time.

European allies have different minds.

The "loosening" of the United States has aroused widespread concern among its European allies. However, European countries have obvious differences in attitudes and actions on this issue based on their respective security interests and policies toward Russia.

In recent years, Britain has continued to increase its military assistance to Ukraine, but it has no position on the behavior of the United States. Despite this, the British media reported on the 20th that Ukraine attacked the Kursk region of Russia for the first time with the permission of western countries. The Times quoted a source as saying that the ban on Ukraine using the British "Shadow of the Storm" missile to attack Russia is likely to have been lifted.

France responded positively to the actions of Biden’s government. French President Macron said on the 18th that Biden’s decision to allow Ukraine to use American-made weapons to attack targets in Russia was "a correct decision". Deriviere, France’s permanent representative to the United Nations, hinted that France would support Uzbekistan in cracking down on military targets related to Russian special military operations. French newspaper le figaro reported in a report on 18th that France and Britain had allowed Ukraine to use long-range missiles provided by the two countries to attack Russian deep targets, but later deleted relevant paragraphs in the online version.

Germany is facing the pressure of Biden’s decision, but it remains cautious. According to a report on the website of Sü ddeutsche Zeitung on the 18th, German Chancellor Angela Scholz will not change the principle of providing Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine. It is reported that Scholz is worried that the supply of Taurus missiles to Ukraine may lead to an escalation of the conflict with Russia. A spokesman for the German Ministry of Defence stressed that all the weapons provided by Germany so far are not long-range weapons.

At the same time, many European countries are worried that the "loosening" of the United States will lead to further escalation of the situation. Italian Foreign Minister Taiani reiterated that the Italian government’s position will not change, saying that "these weapons can only be used in Ukraine". Hungary, Slovakia and other countries have expressed their opposition to this, saying that it is precisely because of the poor foreign policy of the European Union that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has developed to this point, which has destroyed the relations between countries in continental Europe and intensified Europe’s dependence on the United States.

Russia’s updated nuclear policy counter-measures

The Russian side issued a strong warning to the United States to relax restrictions on the use of long-range weapons to aid Ukraine. Peskov, Russian Presidential Press Secretary, said on the 18th that it is obvious that the outgoing Democratic Party government intends to continue to add fuel to the fire and provoke further escalation of tension. Maria Zacharova, a spokesman for the Russian Foreign Ministry, said in a statement that if Ukraine uses long-range missiles to attack Russian mainland, it will mean that the United States and its client countries will directly participate in the war, "and it will also mean that the nature and nature of the conflict will be fundamentally changed. Under this circumstance, Russia’s counterattack will be an eye for an eye and will never be soft. "

Putin signed a presidential decree on the 19th, approving the new version of the Basic Policy of the Russian Federation on Nuclear Deterrence. According to the relevant documents published on the website of the Russian President, the basic principle of the basic policy of the new nuclear deterrent country is that nuclear weapons are the last means to defend national sovereignty. At the same time, due to the emergence of new military threats and risks, Russia needs to confirm the specific circumstances of allowing the use of nuclear weapons. According to this document, any aggression against Russia and/or its allies by non-nuclear countries with the participation or support of nuclear countries will be regarded as a joint attack by non-nuclear countries and nuclear countries against Russia.

Peskov said on the 19th that if Ukraine attacks Russia with western conventional missiles, then Russia can respond with nuclear weapons according to the new basic policy of nuclear deterrent countries. Naryshkin, director of Russian Foreign Intelligence Agency, said in an interview with Russian Defense magazine on the 20th that some NATO members will never get away with trying to participate in supporting long-range strikes against Russian mainland. Western countries have realized the seriousness of Russia’s position and the necessity of restraining their own actions, because "direct military conflict with Russia will bring them disastrous consequences."

Public opinion in Russia generally regards the US policy adjustment as a "provocation" and a "danger signal". However, some analysts pointed out that Ukraine’s use of American-made weapons is still restricted by the US policy. The Russian side has formed a strong counter-measure against the United States’ "loosening" of Ukraine by lowering the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons, which will make the United States and Ukraine have more scruples when trying to use American-made long-range weapons to attack Russia in the future. In addition, Trump repeatedly criticized the Biden administration for its excessive military assistance to Ukraine, and did not rule out the possibility of adjusting its "loosening" measures against Ukraine after taking office.