The price of gold is ＂arrogant＂! Global central banks hoarded 800 tons of gold.

On December 4, COMEX gold futures once stood at the $2,150 mark per ounce, and spot gold rose to $2,146.87 per ounce, both hitting record highs. The soaring international gold price has driven the domestic gold retail and jewelry prices to rise further. As of press time, COMEX gold futures temporarily reported $2,047.6, up slightly by 0.26%.

In addition to ordinary investors snapping up gold, a big buyer of gold is the central banks of various countries. According to the report of the World Gold Council, in the first nine months of this year, central banks have been increasing their gold holdings, which is also a catalyst for the higher price of gold. In the first three quarters, central banks bought about 800 tons of gold, an increase of 14% compared with the same period last year. A recent survey by the World Gold Council also shows that 24% of the central banks intend to continue to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months. According to the latest statistics released by the People’s Bank of China in 2023, China’s gold reserves reached 71.2 million ounces at the end of October, an increase of 740,000 ounces from the previous month, which was the 12th consecutive month.

According to media reports, there are multiple factors behind the record high of gold prices, and the expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is the key reason. Now the influence of geopolitical conflicts has been greatly weakened. Wang Xinjie, chief investment strategist of Standard Chartered China Wealth Management Department, told reporters that the current surge in gold prices was caused by the market’s expectation of future interest rate cuts, which led to a sharp drop in yields, thus supporting the gold price.

Part of the gold jewelry 630 yuan per gram.

According to a report by CCTV Finance on December 5th, at the Shuibei Gold Wholesale Market in Shenzhen, at two or three o’clock in the afternoon, although it was not as hot as the sea of people in August and September, many people came to buy gold. The domestic gold price as high as 483 yuan per gram on the display screen in the market has not stopped some people from buying gold. According to industry insiders, the domestic gold price of 483 yuan per gram has broken through the peak of domestic wholesale gold price, which is the highest in recent years.

According to the data of gold price inquiry network, with the blessing of brand premium, the gold ornaments of some gold jewelry brands even reached 630 yuan per gram on December 4th, a record high. According to industry insiders, the turnover rate of gold wholesale enterprises and production enterprises has been greatly improved under the blessing of the mentality of "buying up and not buying down".

Image source: video screenshot

Shi Xiang, a planning consultant of a gold and jewelry enterprise in Shenzhen, Guangdong Province, said that the overall turnover rate this year increased by about 15%-20% compared with last year. The trend of gold price has been steadily rising throughout this year, so consumers have full confidence in gold investment.

According to industry insiders, in January and December each year, related gold production enterprises and wholesale enterprises enter the stocking stage to meet the upcoming sales season in February and March. At present, among the stocked products, the proportion of new products for "post-90s" and "post-00s" has expanded, and the "Dragon" series products for the Year of the Loong have also increased significantly.

What is the sales situation of some Shanghai gold jewelry brand stores? How has the sales of investment gold bars changed?

In several gold sales stores in Huangpu District, Shanghai, the listing price of pure gold generally ranges from 627 yuan to 631 yuan per gram, while the price of investment gold bars ranges from 572 yuan to 586 yuan per gram, which is higher than the previous day. Although it is a working day and the price of gold is at a high level, there are still many consumers in the store.

According to a report by Securities Daily on December 4, Luo Tuming, a senior investment consultant of Jufeng Investment, said in an interview: "This is related to the psychology that consumers are buying more and more. The historical market of large-scale assets has one thing in common, that is, when the rising logic is widely recognized by the market, the asset price will rise further, and the rising asset price will strengthen people’s confidence in the asset, resulting in the phenomenon of rising and buying, buying and rising. "

Bai Wen Xi, chief economist of IPG China, told reporters: "In the process of rising gold prices, some consumers think that the price of gold jewelry will continue to rise in the future, which will lead to an increase in the purchase cost, so they will choose to buy it in time. In addition, consumers’ willingness to buy safe-haven assets such as gold has increased, driving the demand for gold consumption to rise. "

Hidden risks behind the record high of gold price

Recently, the differences between the market and the Federal Reserve for cutting interest rates next year are becoming more and more prominent. Officially, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is still very cautious, refuting the market speculation that the Fed will cut interest rates in the first half of next year and retaining the option of further interest rate hikes. "It is too early to conclude that we have achieved enough restrictive positions, or to speculate when the policy may be relaxed. If the time is right, we are prepared to further tighten the policy. "

Quite dramatically, although Powell tried to downplay the market’s interest rate cut expectations, Wall Street’s interest rate cut expectations were further strengthened. According to the observation tools of the Federal Reserve of the Chicago Chamber of Commerce, the current market expects that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in May next year will be as high as 85%, and the probability of cutting interest rates in March next year will be as high as 70%.

The gap between the market’s interest rate cut expectations and the Federal Reserve means that there is great uncertainty in the future. Wang Xinjie analyzed that the doveish remarks of Fed officials superimposed on the Beige Book showed that the economy was slowing down, which strengthened the market’s expectation of the future Fed interest rate cut. In the second half of this year, the market’s expectation of suspending interest rate hikes and future interest rate cuts was ahead of the Fed’s dotted chart. However, in the absence of a clear timing for the Fed to cut interest rates, any deviation between economic data and market expectations may make the market fluctuate.

According to the Securities Daily, Bai Wen Xi said: "In the short term, the price of gold may remain at a high level. In the medium and long term, there is still uncertainty about the trend of gold prices. "

Next year, the prosperity of the gold and jewelry consumer industry is generally optimistic. China Merchants Securities Research Report said: "Since 2020, the gold jewelry industry has been cleared at the tail and expanded at the head, and the industry concentration has increased. New technologies such as 5G and ancient gold have improved the degree of differentiation and fashion of gold jewelry, and the demand for self-satisfaction, wedding jewelry and investment preservation will be released in 2023. Multiple factors have jointly pushed up the prosperity of the gold and jewelry industry in 2023. In 2024, consumption and investment demand are expected to continue, and the overall prosperity of the industry is expected to rise steadily. "

National business daily Comprehensive 21st century business herald, CCTV Finance and Securities Daily