The country will make up for ＂delisting＂, and the price of new energy vehicles will ＂rise＂？
According to the "Notice on Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles in 2022" issued by the four ministries and commissions, the financial subsidy policy for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles (referred to as "national subsidy") will end at the end of the year, and new energy vehicles that have been licensed since 2023 will no longer enjoy subsidies. As 2022 draws to a close, the "state subsidy" is about to withdraw, and new energy vehicles have also ushered in a new wave of price adjustment at the end of the year. All-media reporters found that most of the published price adjustment statements of new energy vehicles basically focus on keywords such as "insured price" and "available vehicles". Some insiders said that the price adjustment of car companies revealed that there is a big sales pressure for new energy car companies at present, and the main purpose is to "promote sales". At the same time, with the intensification of market competition, new energy vehicles may have a small price increase at the beginning of next year.
"State Compensation" is about to withdraw from the promotion of "insured+existing car" for new energy vehicles.
"Booking a car before the end of this year is not affected by the withdrawal of the’ national subsidy’." In the reporter’s WeChat circle of friends, many car dealers have marked the above-mentioned "commitment" of car purchase on the brand promotion information. In fact, since October, new energy car companies have issued many price adjustment announcements around the withdrawal of "national compensation". On November 23rd, BYD Auto announced that it would adjust the official guidance price of new energy vehicles related to Dynasty, Ocean and Tengshi by 2,000-6,000 yuan due to the termination of the "state subsidy" policy and the sharp rise in the price of main raw materials for batteries. It is worth noting that although this is a "price reminder", BYD particularly emphasized in the explanation: "Customers who pay the deposit before January 1, 2023 will not be affected." To this end, some insiders believe that there is still about one month before the end of the year, and the "promotion" behind this statement is more meaningful.
It is worth noting that in the fourth quarter of this year, most new energy vehicles have obvious price reduction behavior. On October 24th, Tesla China announced a price reduction for the whole department, ranging from 14,000 to 37,000 yuan, and then introduced policies such as final payment subsidy and speeding up the delivery cycle. Then, Ford Electric Horse followed up the price reduction, with a price reduction range of 20,000-28,000 yuan; On the grounds of "adjustment of rights and interests structure", Xpeng Motors has also adjusted the discounts of various models of G3i, P5 and P7 from 14,000 to 20,000 yuan. According to the information of riders, there are still special cars with long service life. In mid-November, Mercedes-Benz EQ series models also lowered their official guide prices, ranging from 50,000 to 237,600 yuan. The asking circle, which has been sprinting in sales volume, has also launched the activity of "national subsidy locking guarantee", saying that it can provide "scarce existing cars" and "quickly pick up cars" within 1~4 weeks, and even promised that "the owner failed to get a license at the end of the year due to the manufacturer’s reasons, thus missing the subsidy", providing the difference subsidy, and the maximum amount can reach 11,340 yuan. Weilai Automobile, whose production line has been affected many times before, has also come up with a "current car", saying that users who purchase a specified model by locking the order before the specified date can "enjoy the state subsidy of up to 12,600 yuan" and "0 down payment" and fine products.
In addition, the retail car simply gave a "subsidy voucher for old friends to buy a car" of 5000 ~ 10000 yuan. FAW-Volkswagen, Chang ‘an Deep Blue and other traditional car companies launched a "limited time insured" activity for their new energy vehicles before the end of the year. Whether car companies plan to raise prices next year or launch a series of preferential activities such as insured prices and existing cars at the end of the year, people in the industry generally believe that it will play a positive role in promoting the sales of new energy vehicles at the end of the year to a certain extent. According to the preliminary calculation of the Federation of Passenger Cars, the retail market of narrow passenger cars was around 1.86 million in November, up 2.4% year-on-year, of which the retail sales of new energy was around 600,000, up 58.5% year-on-year, and the penetration rate was about 32.3%.
What’s the trend of car prices next year?
According to the current "national subsidy" policy in 2022, the plug-in hybrid subsidy is 4,800 yuan, and the subsidy for pure electric vehicles is up to 12,600 yuan. Then, after the withdrawal of the "state subsidy", will the price of new energy vehicles "rise" next year? This is a problem that many consumers are concerned about. "The withdrawal of’ national compensation’ means that the pricing of new energy vehicles is completely market-oriented, and price fluctuations may be more frequent next year." Gu Zhijun, a senior analyst in the automotive industry, said that whether to "go up" or "go down" next year has become a difficult problem for all new energy OEMs. Judging from the current industry environment, the cost of raw materials and the completion of sales next year are the most critical factors affecting the pricing of new energy vehicles.
The cost of raw materials is still at a high level
The main reason behind the surge in the price of new energy vehicles in the first quarter of this year is the rise in the price of power batteries. In the second half of the year, the price of lithium also remained at a high level, which made many new energy vehicle companies face cost pressure. According to the data of straight flush futures, the main raw material of power battery is spot lithium carbonate, and the average transaction price on November 25 closed at 586,500 yuan/ton; In a year’s time, the price rose by more than 210% year-on-year. Therefore, the high cost of raw materials, combined with the termination and withdrawal of the "state subsidy", has brought great challenges to the survival of some small and medium-sized new energy vehicle enterprises next year. If the price is not raised or certain measures are taken to reduce costs, the operating pressure will increase. Guotai Junan Securities believes that China’s new energy industry will remain prosperous in the future, and there is a large space for lithium salt supply, and the traditional industrial layout is expected to break the current pattern. At the same time, the current high cost of power batteries is not entirely due to unbalanced demand, but more due to the rising prices of raw materials, sellers’ reluctance to sell, middlemen’s hoarding and other reasons. Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the National Passenger Car Market Information Association, pointed out that the price of raw materials for power batteries in China has reached a certain level, and the supply and demand have been significantly improved. In particular, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate material belongs to the bubble-type imaginary high after market speculation, and it is bound to fall in the later period. According to the news of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology on November 18th, the General Office of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the General Office of the State Administration of Market Supervision recently issued a notice on the coordinated and stable development of the supply chain of the lithium-ion battery industry chain. The notice is clear,Local market supervision departments should strengthen supervision, strictly investigate and deal with hoarding, price gouging and unfair competition in the upstream and downstream of the lithium battery industry, and maintain market order.
Will the price increase next year? Car companies are cautious.
"What is the situation next year, we don’t have a clear countermeasure now. Therefore, even if it is to rise, the price increase should be considered in combination with raw materials, supply chain and sales volume. " The person in charge of the sales market of a new car-making force told reporters. "The price adjustment is based on market supply and demand. At present, the overall production capacity of the new energy vehicle industry is surplus, and the price increase will reduce competitiveness." Zhang Xiang, an auto industry analyst and visiting professor at Huanghe Institute of Science and Technology, believes that although BYD announced the price increase, most new energy vehicle companies dare not raise prices, because the price increase will reduce their competitiveness, and only the new energy vehicle companies in the head dare to raise prices. It is generally believed in the industry that sales volume and performance are another factor that determines whether car companies dare to "raise prices". Car companies such as BYD and Tesla, which sell well and have good profitability, have strong ability to cope with risks, so there is more room for price adjustment. Referring to BYD’s "price increase statement" released in advance for next year, it can be noted that BYD’s maximum increase in pure electric vehicles is 6,000 yuan, which is 12,600 yuan according to the current amount of pure electric state compensation, that is, BYD has borne part of the price increase cost within its ability, which is a price that can be more acceptable to consumers. At the same time, Tesla China, which shoulders the "gambling agreement", can start to stimulate the market by reducing prices in the fourth quarter after the production capacity is restored due to the slowdown in sales in the middle of the year. However, Tesla’s current bicycle profit is as high as $9,711, equivalent to RMB69,000, which is more capital for "price reduction" than more companies. At the same time,When the sales volume of other car companies fails to meet expectations, they will also achieve the purpose of impulse by reducing prices. Gu Zhijun said that even if the price rises next year, new energy car companies will be very cautious. Cui Dongshu believes that the current new power brands are under great pressure in terms of sales volume. Due to the official withdrawal of subsidies for new energy vehicles at the end of this year, at the beginning of next year, the domestic new energy automobile market may set off a wave of price increases, but the scale will not be too large. From the overall environment, it is an inevitable trend for car prices to go down.
[purchase guide]
Based on the comprehensive market and experts’ opinions, it is a good opportunity for users who originally planned to buy new energy vehicles before the end of the year to seize the deadline of "national subsidy" and take advantage of the price reduction and profit reduction of many car companies. After all, after calculating the accounts, it is not a small sum of money that can be saved by "state compensation". However, if there is no car purchase plan for the time being, don’t feel that you have lost the opportunity because of the delisting of the "national subsidy" policy. The original intention of the "state subsidy" policy is to cultivate the new energy vehicle market, stimulate the consumption of new energy vehicles, and greatly reduce the purchase threshold. Now it is no longer continued, it is "retiring after success." At present, the market of new energy vehicles has been cultivated, and the China market has been ranked first in global new energy production and sales for many years. In the future, the market will enter complete competition without the support of state subsidies. Under the condition of survival of the fittest, new energy automobile enterprises will inevitably launch different promotion combinations to attract users to buy, and it will be an inevitable trend for the prices of new energy vehicles to go down. (Guangzhou Daily Deng Li)