[Truck House Original] Recently, we saw a set of data on the live broadcast of a press conference. In the heavy commercial vehicle market in 2019, about 8,000 vehicles equipped with AMT automation were sold. By 2020, nearly 50,000 heavy commercial vehicles equipped with AMT gearboxes have been sold, showing almost explosive growth.

The outbreak of automatic transmission has attracted the attention of manufacturers.

The explosive growth of automatic heavy trucks not only makes more card friends choose automatic transmission models, but also makes all manufacturers aim at this field. To put it simply, in the eyes of manufacturers, this thing can be sold and sold for more money, then they will invest in research and development and make this thing. The more R&D is invested, the more ways to realize automatic transmission, or the more R&D routes.

And the live broadcast we saw came from the international gearbox, or the transmission system giant Borgwarner. The theme of this live broadcast is how promising it is to use the dual-clutch gearbox in commercial vehicles, and what kind of experience it will bring.

To put it simply, Borgwarner, as a giant in the transmission system manufacturer, has targeted the market of truck dual clutch. Judging from the participating brands, many domestic truck brands also recognize this matter. It can be said that they have reached a consensus.

So what’s the difference between dual-clutch gearbox and AMT now? Let’s have a brief talk first.

What’s the difference between dual clutch and AMT now?

In fact, the essence of dual clutch and AMT is manual gearbox, but AMT operates the gearbox through gear selection computer and actuator. The dual clutch is to subdivide it again, so that two sets of actuators are responsible for odd gears and even gears respectively. For example, if you are hanging the third gear now, then the actuator of the third gear is working. But at this time, the 4-speed actuator with dual clutch is already ready there. When we need to shift gears, it will switch between two sets of actuators.

We can understand that AMT is equivalent to adding a gear selection computer and a set of electronic control actuators to the manual gearbox. The dual clutch gearbox is to install two AMT in the car. The usual shift is to operate between two sets of actuators. In this way, the shift of the dual clutch can be faster, and the power loss caused during the shift process will be smaller. More fuel-efficient, more powerful, and the cost has not increased much.

There is still a long way to go, and it still needs hard work for the dual clutch to gain a foothold.

In fact, the appearance of dual clutch on trucks is undoubtedly a good thing. But after all, it also has shortcomings. If you want to really gain a foothold, according to Xiaobian, it is almost interesting. At least what I say below needs to be changed or satisfied.

1, the price is the key!

Compared with the AT gearbox, which now occupies a dominant position in passenger cars, the dual clutch is derived from the manual gearbox, and the cost is inevitably lower. However, compared with AMT gearbox, it is more complicated, so the cost is still rising.

To tell the truth, it is difficult for freight card friends to survive now, and buying AMT models is already biting their teeth. At this time, a dual-clutch model that is more expensive than it comes out, and the card friends will definitely not accept it. And this is likely to directly end the life of the dual clutch.

2. It is a problem that large torque is difficult to match.

As we mentioned earlier, the dual clutch gearbox is equivalent to an AMT with two sets of actuators. But in the car, everyone knows that the gearbox can’t be too big and too heavy. Therefore, the dual clutch gearbox often integrates two groups of clutches, which leads to a sharp reduction in the volume of clutches in the dual clutch.

The torque that a small clutch can bear is limited. On the live broadcast of this conference, relevant experts directly gave suggestions: dual clutch gearbox, suitable for power chains less than or equal to 1250 Nm. This also makes the dual clutch gearbox bid farewell to many models directly, especially for some trunk logistics that need high-end, the dual clutch has basically been out.

Of course, it is not without application in high-torque models, for example, it provides a dual-clutch version with a maximum of 540 horsepower. According to the industry bull, if the dual clutch of commercial vehicle adopts the form of front-inserted dual clutch, it will have direct structural difference from the dual clutch of passenger car today, so its performance will be different. It is not certain whether domestic manufacturers will choose this technical route if they apply it.

3, durability may be insufficient!

When the clutch plate becomes smaller, its heat dissipation capacity will become worse, and the heating speed will be much faster. This is equivalent to not only limiting its own strength, but also burying the hidden trouble of failure.

Let’s put it another way. In Xiaobian’s 6 years of experience in passenger car media, I have tried countless passenger cars with dual clutch gearboxes. These vehicles have left a bad impression on me more or less during their use. It can be said that the dual-clutch gearbox is not perfect in passenger cars, whether it is a setback in the acceleration process or an abnormal sound under long-term traffic congestion.

We have to put a question mark on the durability of this clutch gearbox in commercial vehicles that are heavily used and bear greater torque.

4, not smart enough is a serious injury!

In addition to the above problems, commercial vehicles, especially heavy trucks, have more gears in their gearboxes, and we often need to downshift frequently when we slow down. However, limited by the principle, the dual clutch gearbox cannot be trip stop. Because the odd gear is hanging, the next shift must be the even gear.

When we slow down or encounter congestion, vehicles often choose different gears according to the degree of deceleration. At this time, the dual clutch gearbox may not be smart enough to hang the gear we need most. And this problem is also the key. You said it was possible to make up for it with its fast shift speed. However, rapid gear shifting will inevitably exert greater pressure on the gear and box structure, which may also increase the failure rate.

● Editor’s note:

Therefore, if the dual-clutch gearbox really wants to be popularized and go to thousands of households, it still needs to overcome many problems. But I believe that once these problems are overcome, the dual-clutch gearbox will definitely bring us a better experience. (Text/Yuan Sheng)

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　Global supply: The scale of global soda ash production capacity continues to expand, and China contributes a major increase.

In recent years, the global capacity and output of soda ash are increasing year by year. According to Bloomberg, the capacity of soda ash increased from 44.72 million tons in 2000 to 82.95 million tons in 2023. In 2023, China (50%), North America (18%) and Western Europe (11%) are the main soda production capacity distribution areas. According to Bloomberg statistics, in 2000, the global soda production capacity was 44.721 million tons, and it increased to 66.758 million tons in 2014. China was the main source of capacity increase, and the proportion of soda production capacity in China increased from 19.3% to 45.9%, reaching a historical peak. In 2015-2021, the global soda production capacity increase mostly comes from the Middle East and Africa. In 2023, with the launch of natural alkali production capacity in China, the new global production capacity will be concentrated in China.

　 　 　 　Supply in China: capacity expansion by natural alkali method in 2023, and supply may be loose in 2024.

Limited by the industry entry threshold and environmental protection requirements, the growth of soda production capacity in China slowed down from 2016 to 2022, and the new production capacity in 2023 was mainly natural soda production capacity. According to the statistics of Baichuan Yingfu, from 2016 to 2022, China’s soda production capacity expanded from 30.79 million tons to 3,485 tons (including 3.75 million tons of long-term production suspension enterprises). The scale expansion of soda ash production capacity in the future is expected to be limited, and it is mainly natural alkali. In 2023, with the production capacity of 5 million tons in the first phase of Yuanxing Energy Alashan Natural Alkali Project (4 million tons in 2003 and 1 million tons in early 2004), the production capacity of Henan Jinshan Chemical Industry increased by 2 million tons and the production capacity of other soda plants increased slightly, the domestic soda production capacity totaled 41.65 million tons, up by 11% year-on-year.

Demand: the demand for soda ash with flat glass backing, and the application of new energy is rapidly improving.

In 2023, the apparent consumption of soda ash in China was 31.82 million tons (27.26 million tons in 22 years), 73% of which was mainly used in the glass field. In China, glass is the main downstream application field of soda ash, including flat glass, photovoltaic glass and daily-use glass, and their consumption accounts for 43%, 17% and 13% respectively. Followed by baking soda (7%) and silicate (5%) (2023). Among them, from 2019 to now, with the rapid development of domestic photovoltaic industry, the proportion of photovoltaic glass in the downstream application of soda ash has increased significantly, and in 2023, it has surpassed daily glass to become the second largest application field of soda ash.

Related companies

Yuanxing Energy:The company has been deeply involved in the natural soda industry for many years, and the production capacity of soda ash and baking soda ranks among the top in China. By 2023, the company has a capacity of 5.8 million tons of soda ash, 1.5 million tons of baking soda and 1.54 million tons of urea. The company’s natural alkali has a competitive advantage and its production capacity continues to expand. The company plans to build 7.8 million tons of soda ash and 800,000 tons of baking soda in Alashan natural soda project, including 5 million tons of soda ash and 400,000 tons of baking soda in the first phase and 2.8 million tons of soda ash and 400,000 tons of baking soda in the second phase. The first phase of the project was put into trial operation in June 2023; The second phase of the project started construction in December 2023 and is scheduled to be completed in December 2025. Combined with the analysis of this paper, among the different processes of soda ash, trona process has the most advantages in cost and environmental protection, and trona depends on resource endowment. With the continuous expansion of the company’s trona production capacity, it is expected to obtain excess profits in the industry and provide power for the long-term growth of the company’s performance.

References:20240531- TF Securities-Basic chemical industry: soda ash: both supply and demand sides are facing structural changes.

Disclaimer:The above information comes from Huiyang Research Department, and the content does not provide specific operational guidance, and customers should not use it as a reference factor for investment decisions. Buying on this basis is at your own risk, the stock market is risky, and investment needs to be cautious.

(promotion)

　　The weather is cold in winter, and some people are afraid of the cold and don’t want to go out. They just sit on their balcony and bask in the sun through the glass, thinking that this can supplement calcium. Can you really supplement calcium by sunbathing through glass?

　　Sunbathing is to supplement vitamin D.

　　Cao Xuexia, deputy director of the Department of Endocrinology, xuanwu hospital, Capital Medical University, said that the main purpose of sunbathing is not to supplement calcium, but to supplement vitamin D. The main function of vitamin D is to promote intestinal calcium absorption, increase muscle coordination and prevent falls. When in the sun, ultraviolet rays reach the skin, and 7- dehydrocholesterol in the skin will gradually transform vitamin D. However, if you bask in the sun through the glass, the glass will block some ultraviolet rays, and the amount of ultraviolet rays will be obviously attenuated, which will affect the absorption of vitamin D and calcium.

　　Experts suggest that ultraviolet rays should be exposed to the outside world under the condition of adequate protection, and ultraviolet rays will be attenuated through glass, especially B-segment ultraviolet rays that stimulate the skin, which will affect the transformation of vitamin D and thus the absorption of calcium. If you need calcium supplement, most of the calcium still needs to be taken from food, such as milk or calcium tablets.

　　It is advisable to bask in the sun for less than 30 minutes.

　　Sunbathing through the glass really can’t promote the absorption of calcium, and it may even get sunburned. If you really can’t go out for activities, you must also open the window and let the sun directly contact your skin. "Shorts and short sleeves in summer, showing face and hands in winter" is the best choice.

　　It should be noted that the time spent in the sun is not as long as possible, and too long exposure may hurt the skin. Most people can spend 10-20 minutes in the sun every day. Children can spend a shorter time and the elderly can spend a longer time, but it is generally recommended to spend 30 minutes. If necessary, you can wear sunglasses to avoid eye damage caused by direct sunlight, and wearing a hat can avoid hair sunburn. After sunbathing, it is necessary to replenish water in time and vitamin C selectively to inhibit the production of melanin and prevent sunburn.