How should the economic situation be viewed？
How should the economic situation be viewed?
Juli
Scientific understanding of the economic situation is the basic prerequisite for doing a good job in economic work. The current economic situation is complicated. What should we think? Widely concerned at home and abroad. In order to penetrate the layers of fog, grasp the development law, see the development trend clearly and draw a correct conclusion, we must have scientific theoretical guidance. General Secretary of the Supreme Leader pointed out that learning and understanding the basic principles and methodology of Marxist political economy will help us master scientific economic analysis methods. Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, General Secretary of the Supreme Leader has persisted in applying the basic theory and methodology of Marxist political economy, scientifically analyzed the economic situation from the combination of history and reality, theory and practice, and domestic and international, grasped the general trend of development, and made a systematic exposition on the important issue of "how to look at the economic situation" in the new era, which provided a scientific basis for "how to do economic work" in the new era, further deepened our party’s understanding of the laws of China’s economic development, and was an important part of the Supreme Leader’s economic thought. We should thoroughly study and understand the spirit of these important expositions, especially the positions, viewpoints and methods that run through them, further unify our thinking, strengthen our confidence, work hard, consolidate and enhance the economic recovery, and strive to turn the grand blueprint of Chinese modernization into a beautiful reality step by step.
First, judge the orientation and changes of China’s economy from the historical, realistic and future trends, and deeply understand the new features and requirements brought about by the development and changes of the main contradictions in our society.
A correct understanding of the historical position and development stage of the cause of the party and the people is the fundamental basis for our party to clarify the central task of the stage and formulate the line, principles and policies. Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the CPC Central Committee with the Supreme Leader as the core has profoundly analyzed the new historical conditions for China’s development, made a major judgment that the main contradictions in our society have changed, emphasized that Socialism with Chinese characteristics has entered a new era, and China’s economic development has also entered a new era. Its basic feature is that it has changed from a high-speed growth stage to a high-quality development stage, which has clearly defined the historical position and stage characteristics of China’s economic development, and provided a fundamental basis for us to correctly analyze the economic situation and formulate economic policies.
In the new stage, the main feature of the change of economic situation is that the economy has changed from high-speed growth to medium-high-speed growth. Since the reform and opening up, China’s economy has maintained a double-digit or nearly double-digit high-speed growth for a long time, creating a miracle of sustained and rapid growth, from 1979— In 2012, the average annual economic growth rate of China reached 9.9%. After entering a new stage, the growth rate dropped significantly, from 2013— In 2022, the average annual growth rate of China’s economy is 6.2%, and the average annual growth rate of anti-epidemic three years is 4.5%. What caused the obvious change of economic growth rate? There are various reasons, and it is certain that this change is trend rather than periodicity. This trend change reflects the changes of the main social contradictions, the development stages, development environment and development conditions, and the great logic of China’s economic development. On the one hand, after more than 30 years of high-speed growth, China’s economy is facing a series of new problems, such as rising labor costs, reaching a bottleneck in the carrying capacity of resources and environment, prominent problems of poor economic cycle, and slowing down the growth of international market demand, which requires us to change the extensive development mode and maintain a reasonable economic growth rate in order to achieve sustainable economic development. If the stimulus policy is only implemented for short-term economic growth, it will inevitably overdraw future growth. On the other hand, economic development is a spiral process, and when the quantity accumulates to a certain stage, it must turn to qualitative improvement. With the changes of major social contradictions in our country, the contradictions and problems in development are mainly reflected in the quality of development.This requires us to pay more attention to the quality and efficiency of development, speed up the transformation of development mode, adjust the economic structure, strive to improve the quality and efficiency of development, better meet the people’s growing needs for a better life, and promote China’s transformation from an economic power to an economic power.
The scenery project of 1 million kilowatts of scenery hydrogen storage in Fengning, Chengde, Hebei Province is a large-scale clean energy base planned by the state in the 14 th Five-Year Plan — — The landmark project of clean energy base in northern Hebei. After the completion of the project, it is estimated that 1.8 billion kWh of green electricity can be produced each year, and carbon dioxide emissions will be reduced by about 1.4 million tons. The picture shows that on January 12, 2024, the workers of this project are installing fan hub accessories. Xinhua News Agency issued Wang Liqun/photo
It can be seen that the change of economic growth rate is an inevitable reflection of the stage characteristics of China’s economic development, and it should be understood objectively and rationally, and based on this, policies should be formulated correctly. As General Secretary of the Supreme Leader pointed out, "If the speed of economic development is not higher, the situation will be ‘ Very good ’ It’s not that if the economic development slows down a little, the situation will be ‘ Very bad ’ " ; "We should adhere to the correct view of political achievements, not simply talk about heroes by the growth rate of GDP, and not be influenced by the fluctuation of short-term economic indicators"; "Based on improving quality and efficiency, we will promote sustained and healthy economic development, pursue a real and moisture-free GDP, and pursue effective, quality and sustainable economic development". Lenin once pointed out that when analyzing the situation, Marxists should not proceed from the possibility, but from reality. In analyzing the economic situation, we should also proceed from reality, not from subjective wishes.
The key to correctly understand the stage characteristics of economic development and the changes of its situation is to grasp the main contradictions. At different stages of economic development, the main contradictions of economic development are also different. The principal contradiction in our society has been transformed into the contradiction between the people’s growing need for a better life and the unbalanced development. In line with this, the principal contradiction in China’s economic development at this stage has been transformed into a structural problem, and there are aggregate, cyclical and institutional factors, which are intertwined and quite complicated. To correctly analyze the economic situation, we must firmly grasp the basic characteristics of the changes in major social contradictions and the fact that China’s economic development has entered a stage of high-quality development, focus on solving the problems of insufficient development imbalance, quality and efficiency of development, and make a correct judgment. General Secretary of the Supreme Leader pointed out that "high-quality development is the development that can well meet the people’s growing needs for a better life, is the development that embodies the new development concept, is the development that innovation becomes the first driving force, coordination becomes the endogenous feature, green becomes the universal form, opening up becomes the only way, and sharing becomes the fundamental purpose", "that is, from ‘ Is there ’ Turn ‘ Ok ’ " . That is to say, in the new stage, judging whether the economy is good or not depends not only on the total volume and speed, but also on whether the development momentum is strong and the economic structure is reasonable.See whether the driving force for innovation is stronger, whether the development is more coordinated, whether the green background is thicker, whether the level of openness is higher, and whether the people are happier and healthier. In the final analysis, we must adhere to high-quality development as the last word in the new era, implement the new development concept completely, accurately and comprehensively, and promote the effective improvement of quality and reasonable growth of quantity in the economy. It should be noted that behind the change of economic growth rate, after the great changes since the new era, the quality of China’s economic development has been greatly improved, and it has embarked on a road of higher quality, more efficient, fairer, more sustainable and safer development. The long-term trend of high-quality development is irreversible, which is a basic point that must be firmly grasped in correctly analyzing the current economic situation.
2. Insist on analyzing the economic situation from a comprehensive, dialectical and long-term perspective. The fundamentals of China’s long-term economic improvement have not changed and will not change.
It is advisable to be open-minded when the scenery is long. To scientifically analyze and judge the economic situation, in the final analysis, we should stick to the basic stand, viewpoint and method of Marxism, look at the essence through the phenomenon, look at the long term through the short term, grasp the economic law, and see clearly the inevitable trend of economic development determined by the objective economic law; It is to insist on accurately grasping the general trend of development with a comprehensive, dialectical and long-term vision, not confined to temporary fluctuations, nor to temporary gains and losses, and always maintain a firm strategic strength.
So, what conclusions can we draw from a comprehensive, dialectical and long-term view of China’s economy? This is what General Secretary of the Supreme Leader has repeatedly emphasized. The basic characteristics of China’s economic potential, strong resilience, large room for maneuver and many policy tools have not changed, and the long-term positive fundamentals have not changed and will not change. Facts are the best proof. Entering a new era, based on the miracle of rapid economic development created since the founding of New China, especially since the reform and opening up, China’s GDP has jumped from 54 trillion yuan in 2012 to 120.5 trillion yuan in 2022, more than doubling; The per capita GDP rose from $6,300 to $12,700, ranking firmly among the middle-income countries. In terms of growth rate, whether it is 2013— The average annual growth rate of more than 6% in 2022, or the average annual growth rate of 4.5% in the three years of anti-epidemic, is much higher than the world average in the same period, ranking among the major economies in the world. The year 2023 is a year of economic recovery and development after the transition of epidemic prevention and control in COVID-19 for three years. In the case of the continuous downturn of the world economy, China’s economy has generally rebounded, with the annual GDP exceeding 126 trillion yuan and the economic growth of 5.2%, which contributed one third of the global growth and remained the biggest engine of world economic growth. In short, the horizontal ratio, China’s economic growth rate in the world’s major economies to maintain a leading; Vertically, at present, the main indicators of China’s economic and social development have improved significantly, and the economy has continued to grow steadily and reached a new level. China’s economy has strengthened its physique and bones in the storm.This is an important manifestation of China’s economy entering a high-quality development stage.
Furthermore, the "good" economy of China is not only manifested in quantity, but also in quality. For example, in the economic structure, the proportion of added value of high-tech manufacturing industry in the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size has been increasing, from 9.4% in 2012 to 15.5% in 2022. In terms of innovation capability, the report "Global Innovation Index 2023" shows that China ranks 12th, is the only middle-income economy among the top 30, and has entered the ranks of innovative countries. In terms of coordinated development, the proportion of GDP in the central and western regions in the whole country increased from 21.3% and 19.6% in 2012 to 22.1% and 21.4% in 2022, and the income gap between urban and rural residents continued to narrow. In terms of green development, China has supported more than 6% economic growth with an average annual energy consumption growth rate of 3% in the past 10 years, which is one of the countries with the fastest reduction in energy consumption intensity in the world. In terms of opening up and development, China has become the main trading partner of more than 140 countries and regions, with the total import and export volume ranking first in the world for many years in a row, attracting foreign investment and foreign investment ranking first in the world. In terms of shared development, 2012— In 2023, the per capita disposable income of urban and rural residents will increase from 16,500 yuan to 39,200 yuan, which is basically in step with economic growth. It can be said that the characteristics of China’s high-quality development stage are becoming more and more obvious, the driving force of high-quality development is becoming stronger and the pace of high-quality development is becoming more and more stable. In the face of the historic achievements of China’s economic development, the so-called "China’s theory of economic peaking and China’s theory of economic collapse have no factual basis and can only be broken.
China insists on giving priority to restoring and expanding consumption, and has successively issued a series of policies to promote consumption. The consumer market has recovered and the basic role of consumption has become more significant. The picture shows that on February 11, 2024, tourists enjoyed the night view in Gongshui River, Xuanen County, Enshi Tujia and Miao Autonomous Prefecture, Hubei Province. Xinhua News Agency issued Song Wen/photo
Why is the basic trend of China’s long-term economic improvement unchanged? This is because China’s economic development has many favorable conditions and strong advantages, and has a solid foundation to support the long-term improvement of the economy. These strong advantages and solid foundations fundamentally reflect the objective laws of Socialism with Chinese characteristics’s economic development. In this regard, the General Secretary of the Supreme Leader made a systematic exposition from many aspects. In an interview in June 2019, the General Secretary profoundly pointed out that China’s stable, healthy and sustainable economic development has sufficient supporting conditions from four aspects: resource potential, endogenous power, development vitality and regulatory capacity. During the two sessions of the National People’s Congress in 2022, the General Secretary emphasized that China’s development still has many strategic advantages: strong leadership of the Communist Party of China (CPC), obvious advantages of Socialism with Chinese characteristics system, solid foundation for sustained and rapid development, long-term stable social environment and spiritual strength of self-confidence. In a written speech at the APEC CEO Summit in November, 2023, General Secretary pointed out that China has the institutional advantages of a socialist market economy, the demand advantages of a super-large-scale market, the supply advantages of a complete industrial system, and the talent advantages of a large number of high-quality workers and entrepreneurs, and its economic development has strong endogenous motivation, resilience and potential. It is China’s unique comprehensive advantages, such as political advantages, institutional advantages, popular support advantages, basic advantages, development advantages, demand advantages, supply advantages, talent advantages and opportunity advantages, that complement each other, superimpose and amplify, and promote China’s economic development and create great achievements that attract worldwide attention.We often say that the road is tortuous and the future is bright. The road is tortuous because there are all kinds of complicated and changeable situations; The future is bright because there is an unchanging general trend and logic behind the complicated and changeable situation. Standing at a new starting point, these favorable conditions and advantages will surely promote China’s economy to innovate miracles on the road of high-quality development with strong development potential and potential energy, which is the confidence and confidence of China’s long-term economic improvement.
Three, based on the domestic, look at the world, and deeply understand the impact of the complicated international situation on China.
Today’s China is a China closely connected with the world. Under the background of deepening economic globalization, expanding China’s opening to the outside world and intensifying international competition, to correctly understand China’s economic situation, we must establish an international perspective, make overall plans for both domestic and international situations, put economic development under the global political and economic background, deeply analyze changes in external environment, and grasp the general trend of development in the interaction between China and the world.
In 2023, the total export of "three new products" represented by electric manned vehicles, lithium-ion batteries and solar cells in China exceeded the trillion-dollar mark for the first time, showing the new advantages made in China. The picture shows that on January 14th, 2024, the BYD Ro/Ro Ship "BYD EXPLORER NO.1" arrived at Xiaomo International Logistics Port in Shenzhen Port. Xinhua news agency
General Secretary of the Supreme Leader pointed out, "At present, the great changes in the world that have never happened in a hundred years are accelerating, and the world has entered a new period of turbulent change." "The external environment for China’s development has changed dramatically, and uncertainties and unpredictable factors have increased significantly." The profound changes in the external environment have a profound impact on China’s economic development: First, the development gap is widening, multiple crises of food, energy and debt are simultaneously emerging, the recovery of the world economy is difficult, and the momentum of economic growth is insufficient. Second, economic globalization has encountered counter-current, cold war mentality, hegemonism, unilateralism and protectionism have risen, and the stability of the world industrial chain supply chain has been affected. Third, geopolitical turmoil, frequent local conflicts, regional security hot issues one after another, global problems intensified, and the international economic, scientific, technological, cultural, security, political and other patterns are undergoing profound adjustments. This means that China will face more external environment against the wind and water, and seek development in a more unstable and uncertain world, which is an important factor that we must consider when judging the economic situation. For example, weak global economic growth and shrinking external demand have impacted China’s export trade; For example, individual countries generalize national security, politicize and weaponize economic, trade, scientific and technological exchanges, build "small courtyards and high walls", and encourage "decoupling and breaking chains", which affects China’s participation in the global division of labor and expansion of the global market; For example, the global industrial chain supply chain has a trend of localization and regionalization.It may weaken China’s position in the global industrial chain supply chain. In the face of these new challenges, we must strengthen our sense of hardship, adhere to the bottom line thinking and extreme thinking, and ensure that we can withstand the major tests of high winds, high waves and even stormy waves.
A correct understanding of the current economic situation requires a spirit of self-confidence and self-reliance. General Secretary of the Supreme Leader pointed out that China’s economy is a sea, not a small pond; Storms can overturn small ponds, but not the sea. The increasingly severe and complicated external environment and obviously increased risk challenges have not changed the strong resilience and development momentum of China’s economy, nor reduced its position and contribution in the world economy; On the contrary, in the rapidly changing world and the deep interaction between domestic and international situations, China’s economic competitiveness is further enhanced and its advantages are further highlighted. The proportion of China’s total economic output in the world economy rose from 11.3% in 2012 to over 18% in 2022, and its annual contribution rate to world economic growth exceeded 30%. China’s important position in the global industrial chain supply chain has been continuously enhanced, from 2012— In 2023, the added value of manufacturing industry increased from 22.5% to nearly 30% in the world, and the scale of manufacturing industry and the output of many industrial products ranked first in the world. China is the main source of investment for more and more countries, and has gradually grown into an important participant from a passive receiver and an active follower of international economic and trade rules; As the world’s largest exporter, it has provided a large number of inexpensive goods for all countries in the world. As General Secretary of the Supreme Leader pointed out, "it depends on what China has achieved, but also on what China has contributed to the world". Facts have proved and will continue to prove that no matter in the past, present or future,China has always been an important promoter of global openness, a stable source of power for world economic growth, a vibrant market for countries to expand business opportunities and an active contributor to global governance reform.
Four, adhere to the "two-point theory", not only see the difficulties and challenges, but also see the advantages and opportunities, and strive to cultivate new opportunities in the crisis and open up new opportunities in the changing situation.
To scientifically analyze the economic situation, we must have a dialectical view and look at the problem in two ways, not only to see the unfavorable side, but also to see the difficulties and challenges; We should also see the advantages, advantages and opportunities in the domestic and international situation.
Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the economic situation at home and abroad has been extremely complicated. Many situations have not been encountered since the reform and opening up, and many difficulties and challenges have not been encountered before. Focusing on the changed development environment and conditions, the CPC Central Committee with the Supreme Leader as the core faced the difficulties and challenges faced by China’s economic development and made a series of important judgments: it pointed out that the contradiction between overcapacity and upgrading of demand structure in China was prominent, the endogenous motivation of economic growth was insufficient, and the problems of imbalance, uncoordinated and unsustainable remained outstanding; It is pointed out that China’s structural, institutional and cyclical problems are intertwined, the influence of "three-phase superposition" continues to deepen, and the sources and risk points of global turmoil have increased significantly; It is pointed out that China’s economic development is facing triple pressures of demand contraction, supply shock and expected weakening, and the external environment is becoming more complicated, severe and uncertain. The Central Economic Work Conference held at the end of 2023 emphasized that it is necessary to overcome some difficulties and challenges to further promote the economic recovery, mainly due to insufficient effective demand, overcapacity in some industries, weak social expectations, and still many potential risks. The domestic big cycle is blocked, and the complexity, severity and uncertainty of the external environment are rising. What should we think about these emerging problems and difficulties? The general secretary of the supreme leader’s answer is firm and powerful. "We can neither hide the difficulties and challenges, resistance and variables, nor turn a blind eye, nor panic and lose our footing." "The more difficult it is, the more we must strengthen our confidence.The more calm and brave you are, "the key to preventing and resolving all kinds of hidden dangers and actively responding to the impact challenges brought about by changes in the external environment is to do your own thing well." These important expositions of the General Secretary clearly express the heroic spirit of the Communist Party of China (CPC) people who dare to struggle and win, and the more difficult and dangerous they are, the more forward they will be.
Adhering to the bottom line thinking is not passive inaction, but on the basis of respecting objective laws, giving full play to subjective initiative, making the worst plans and striving for the best results. This requires us to overcome difficulties, make use of the situation, accurately grasp the opportunities and challenges faced by China’s development, and win the strategic initiative. "Misfortune depends on happiness, and happiness depends on misfortune." Opportunities and challenges coexist, and overcoming the crisis is the opportunity, which is an eternal dialectical principle. The General Secretary of the Supreme Leader profoundly pointed out that crises coexist, crises are organic, crises can turn around, opportunities are more strategic and plastic, challenges are more complex and overall, challenges are unprecedented, and opportunities are unprecedented if we deal with them well. It should be noted that despite the profound and complex changes at home and abroad, China’s development still faces new strategic opportunities, such as those brought about by the new round of scientific and technological revolution and the in-depth development of industrial transformation, those brought about by accelerating the optimization and upgrading of economic structure, those brought about by enhancing the ability of scientific and technological innovation, those brought about by deepening reform and opening up, those brought about by accelerating green development, those brought about by promoting the coordinated development of urban and rural areas, those brought about by the optimization and upgrading of residents’ consumption, and those brought about by participating in the reform of the global economic governance system. We should not only enhance our awareness of risks, but also enhance our awareness of opportunities, adhere to problem orientation, maintain strategic strength, accurately recognize changes, respond scientifically, take the initiative to seek changes, turn pressure into motivation, and turn challenges into opportunities.Firmly grasp the initiative of development strategy, strive to cultivate new machines in the crisis and open up new opportunities in the changing situation.
5. Enhance confidence and confidence, do a solid job in economic work, and push China’s economic ship forward through the waves.
Comrade Deng Xiaoping pointed out that "everything in the world is done, and there is no Marxism at all". The scientific answer to the question "What do you think of the economic situation?" aims at solving the problem of "How to do economic work?" On the basis of scientific analysis and judgment of the economic situation, we can make scientific economic decisions and implement effective policy measures to promote sustained and healthy economic development. In the new journey, to fully stimulate the accumulated potential of China’s economic development, turn the advantages of agglomeration into the victory of development, and then continue the new glory of China’s economy, it is basically necessary to carry forward the historical initiative, work hard and move forward bravely. We should closely focus on the biggest politics of promoting Chinese modernization, focus on the central task of economic construction and the primary task of high-quality development, strengthen our confidence, forge ahead, and do a good job in economic work with a spirit of hard work and a sense of responsibility of "always worrying".
With the guidance of Marxist scientific theory, it is fundamental for us to grasp the historical initiative. The supreme leader’s economic thought insists on combining the basic principles of Marxism with the concrete reality of China and the excellent traditional Chinese culture, scientifically answering the major theoretical and practical questions about how to look at the economic situation and how to do economic work, which embodies our party’s profound insight into the law of economic development, especially the law of socialist economic construction, and is a powerful ideological weapon to guide China’s high-quality economic development, scientifically respond to major risks and challenges, and comprehensively build a socialist modern country. Since the new era, China’s economic development has achieved historic achievements and undergone historic changes. The most fundamental reason lies in the leadership of the Supreme Leader General Secretary and the scientific guidance of the Supreme Leader’s Socialism with Chinese characteristics Thought in the new era, especially the Supreme Leader’s economic thought, which fully proves that "two establishment" is the greatest certainty, the greatest confidence and the greatest guarantee for us to overcome all difficulties and obstacles and deal with all uncertainties. We should profoundly understand the decisive significance of the "Two Establishments", deeply grasp the regularity of doing a good job in economic work in the new era, persistently arm our minds, guide practice and promote work with the Party’s scientific theory, and constantly open up a new situation in economic work in the new era.
The party’s centralized and unified leadership over economic work is the fundamental guarantee for the sustained and healthy development of the socialist economy. Whether we can control the world’s second largest economy and maintain sustained and healthy economic and social development fundamentally depends on whether the party plays a leading role in economic and social development. We must uphold and strengthen the overall leadership of the Party, constantly improve the system and mechanism of the Party’s leadership in economic work, and improve the Party’s ability and level of leadership in economic work. It is necessary to profoundly understand the scientific judgment of the CPC Central Committee on the economic situation, thoroughly implement the decision-making arrangements of the CPC Central Committee on economic work, faithfully implement them, resolutely implement them, seek truth and be pragmatic, dare to do good deeds, ensure that all major decision-making arrangements are implemented and effective, and strive to achieve various goals and tasks of economic and social development.
He who observes the situation is wise, and he who controls the situation wins. Facing the grim and complicated situation, under the strong leadership of the CPC Central Committee with the Supreme Leader as the core, the whole party and the people of all ethnic groups throughout the country will work with one heart and one mind, which will surely push China’s economic ship forward and create a new miracle of comprehensively promoting the construction of a strong country and national rejuvenation with Chinese modernization.